Rally after FOMC! Where do we go from here? My plan for Thursday March 21
Good morning traders!
Unfortunately I was on a flight without WIFI and I missed the FOMC action. Please leave a comment if you had trouble spotting how the bids were strongly supported and upside was coming.
The hard part was figuring out what the best price and which option contract to choose for 10x.
Turns out without a faker dip, it was a near impossible but getting for a 300% was very doable with less than 30% draw down.
Let’s get into yesterday’s action and my ideas for today.
Introduction (for New Readers)
Welcome to my blog on Two Hour Trading, your daily source for market insights and trading opportunities. In this blog, I will provide you with a comprehensive analysis of the market, educational lessons, and trade ideas to help you stay ahead in your trading journey and best of all doing it less than two hours a day.
What Subscribers Get
Subscribers to this blog will receive daily updates on market analysis, educational content, and up to three trade ideas each morning, all based on real-life examples and my personal approach to trading.
NOTE: screenshots from chat are from Edge Trade Planner. A platform available to THT PRO members. Join Us for live commentary and planning. Note my goal is to actively trade less than 2 hours a day finding 1 to 4 great trades a day.
What is Two Hour Trading?
It’s my system for finding and executing trades while spending less than two hours a day trading. My goal is to earn 100-300% on the capital I risk while waiting for 1000%+ gain trades to setup. Key benefits:
High Quality trades with great reward vs risk
Avoid Overtrading and losses from it
Trading to Win vs Trading to Not Lose
Stacking the deck in your favor
2024 Alert Leaderboard
(I’ve decided to include a leaderboard so you can see what potential the 2 Hour Trading System has)
The following is based on entry alerts.
Mar 20 - SPX 4200c Entry $7.50 - High after $27.12 ($750 → $2710 potential)
Mar 19 - SPX 4170c Entry $1.10 - High after $11.30 ($1100 → $11300 potential)
Mar 18 - GOOGL 147p Entry $0.65 - High after $1.71 ($650 → $1700 potential)
*runner reached $2Mar 18 - SMCI 900p Entry $10 - High after $30 ($1000 → $3000 potenital)
*runner reached $60!Mar 14 - SPX 5150c Entry $3 - High after $10.50 ($3000 → $10500 potential)
Mar 12 - SPX 5150c Entry $4 - High after $27.50 ($4000 → $27500 potential)
Mar 11 - SPX 5120c Entry $3 - High after 7.50 ($3000 → $7500 potential)
Mar 8 - SMCI 1150p Entry $5 - High after $56.20 ($500 → $5620 potential)
Mar 8 - AMD 220c Entry $0.50 - High after $7.65 ($500 → $7650 potential)
Mar 7 - SPX 5175c Entry $0.50 - High after $2.40 ($500→ $2400 potential)
Mar 6 - SPX 5120c Entry $3.50 - High after $12+ ($3500→ $12000 potential)
Mar 5 - SPX 5070c Entry $0.50 - High after $10.75 ($500 → $10750 potential)
** alerted 0.30 entry wanted. dipped to 0.40. entered at 0.50Mar 5 - SPX 5070p Entry $1 - High after $13.50 ($1000 → $13500 potential)
Mar 4 - SMCI 1200c Entry $33 - High after $61 ($3300 —> $6100 potential)
Mar 1 - SPX 5120c Entry $2 - High after $20 ($2000 —> $20000 potential)
Feb 29 - SPX 5095c Entry 0.50 - High after $10 ($500 —> $10000 potential)
Feb 29 - SPX 5100c Entry 0.30 - High after $5+ ($300 —> $5000 potential)
Feb 27 - TSLA 195p Entry 0.90 - High after $2.30+ ($900 —> $2300 potential)
Feb 26 - SPX 5070p Entry 0.20 - High after $2. ($200 —> $2000 potential)
Feb 23 - NVDA 800p Entry 2.50 - High after $25.11 ($3000 → $25110 potential)
**Dipped to 2.57 (had to chase entry 3)
Feb 23 - NVDA 820c Entry 2.25 (swing from Thursday) - High after $25.00 ($2250 → $25000 potential)
Feb 22 - SPX 4090c Entry $2.50 - High after $9.20 ($2500 → $9200 potential)
Feb 16 - SMCI 1000p Entry $11 - High after $195 ($1100 → $19500 potential)
Feb 15 - TSLA 195c. Entry $1.20 - High after 5.95 ($1200 → $5950 potential)
Feb 14 - NVDA 720p. Entry $4.5 - High after $12 ($4500 → $12000 potential)
Feb 13 - SPX 4955p. Entry $5 - High after $34 ($5000 → $34000 potential)
Feb 12 - ARM 180c. Entry $1.20 - High after $14.10 ($1200 → $14000 potential)
Feb08 - ARM 100c. Entry $5 - High after $27.50. ($5000 → $27500 potential)
Feb07 - TSLA 185c. Entry $2.53 - Hight after $5.60 ($2530 —> $5600 potential)
Feb05 - SPX 4940c. Entry $3 - High after $16.60 ($3000 → $16,600 potential)
Feb02 - AMD 180c. Entry 0.15 - High after $1 ($1500 —> $10000 potential)
Jan 29 - SPX 4910c. Entry $1 - High after $20 ($1000 —> $20000 potential)
Jan 26 - NFLX 570c. Entry $0.50 - High after $9.85 ($500 → $9850 potential)
Jan 25 - TSLA 185p. Entry $1.5 - High after $6.3 ($1500 → $6300 potential)
Jan 24 - SPX 4890p Entry $1.50 - High after $22 ($1500 → $22000 potential)
Jan 24 - SPX 4880p Entry $0.50 - High after $12 ($500 → $6000 potential)
Jan 17 - SPX 4740c Entry $0.20 - High after $2.80 ($200→ $2800 potential)
Jan 17 - SPX 4740c Entry $1.20 - High after $12 ($1200→ $12000 potential)
**Past Performance is not indicative of future results
For live alerts and market commentary click the button below.
Wednesday Price Action (Education)
You don't try to make $100,000 ...You don’t start by saying, I’m going to make the biggest most profitable trade and turn $1000 into $100,000 and fix all my bad trades before.
You say, I’m going to plan and execute 1 trade as perfectly as I can today. You do that every single day, and soon you'll have a $100,000 and likely much more!
I shared one new idea yesterday before heading to the airport and that was to get 5200c for a breakout on SPY past 416.30.
SPY/SPX
There is a lot to learn on yesterday chart.
SPY 515.30 held support and in Edge chat I wrote that I expected 516.30 resistance to be tested 2-3 times before we punched through and that is what happened.
SPX 5200c held value all day into FOMC even though it was $20 away (shows demand)
At 13:45, 15min before FOMC minutes published a failed breakdown reversal started forming
2pm. FOMC minutes published and 516.30 was cleared with volume.
I said wait for 2:30 yesterday morning. at 2:30 vwap test and back test of the 516.30 breakout happened. This is your best risk/reward entry! with least probably chance of chop/headache targeting a 2 level move at 519+
Second opportunity entry was on reclaim of 517.40
My morning plan for 5200c at 7.50 stops 6.50 held true. Funny thing, SPX 5200c dipped to 6.60 at 2:30pm and then ran to $27. If you scooped at 7.50 using $1 risk, that is $1800 gain on $100 of risk!
SMCI
Earlier this week I wrote that SMCI 850-900 is likely the buy zone for swings. Yesterday it dipped to 855 and reversed. The key here was to watch for the reclaim of 875 which was the pricing of the offering.
The challenge on SMCI has been that the contracts are juiced. so far I’ve lost twice going long on for a total of about $3/contract. But I’m ok with that because it’s paid me over $15-100/contract when I’m right.
Summary Review of Market Price Action
Market essentially consolidated yesterday and for some name like chips establish failed breakdown reversals.
Educational Lessons
From the price action review you should have learned the following:
Wait for the levels to plan trades
How to target which contracts on a Monday
Be patient. Let trades come to you. Make it OK to take only 1 trade a day.
Use /plan in Edge Trade Planner to quickly create trade plans.
Learn how to recognize failed breakdown reversals at key levels.
I got a nice message this morning that I thought I would share from a THT-PRO member.
Trade Ideas - Plan for Thursday Mar 21
Stick to process. The process and trade setups I teach works. Rinse and repeat over and over again. There will be losses. Any good system will have them. Being systematic also means the gains will repeat and come again too. If you keep changing your system/process trying in an effort to never lose a trade, you will never get to where you want to go.
So yesterday’s theory panned out that after 2 weeks of selling, we are back to the upward grind. SPY is gapping up this morning which makes it important to be patient again for dips before going long.
Ideally can can get a gap up reversal today for some gap fill.
I’m watching NFLX, SPY, and TSLA today