Process delivers 150% gain, Spectre Special delivers 2000% in 6 minutes. Will CPI kill or juice this rally? Trade Ideas for Tuesday May 13
Are you planning trades that pay over 5 times your risk? Learn how to, in today's blog.
In premarket I told THT PRO members I plan to exit TSLA 320c for 9-12 from our 3.50ish entry on Friday. It opened at $12!!! and faded sub $9. The neat thing about having sell orders in advance, they can fill you at best prices so even if your order is at $9 and it opens at 11, you get filled at 11. :)
Yesterday in Trade Ideas I wrote that I wanted SPX 5800p for $10 or less. It gave 2 trades! Dipping just under $10 and rallied to $20 the first time and $25 the second time.
How great is that for 15 minute trades from entry to exit? I was looking for much more but This is where the levels come in. SPY dropped right to the 578 level on open signaling take profits to follow process. Then we raised stops as 578 broke the second time. As we were moving to 10:30 we also raise our stops and take some profit into the spike.
I warned THT PRO members we might get a 10:30am reversal which if fact is exactly what developed. That is when I made my next plan which was for 581 and 583 to come . Guys this isn’t rocket science. This is learning to recognize the price action and reaction to levels.
Be sure to read the Recap section to learn how I planned the upside trades.
SPX 5820c went to 25 from alert to scoop sub $6
SPX 5840c went to $6 (I gave 5-6 as final target) from $0.30 scoop alert BEFORE it dropped to 0.30. We caught the entire range!
Stop being a hobbyist and invest in becoming a focused disciplined trader with a trade to win mindset with us.
Overnight Action
SPY - dipped to 580s overnight and essentially consolidated between 580 and 582.
AMD - massive bounce to 110
NVDA - pushing over 123
META - gapping up over 640
TSLA - dipped 314 overnight and is now pushing back over 320
BTC - dipped to 102 and is now back at 104.
Overall market doesn’t seem to be showing too much fear ahead of CPI today.
So that is where we are at. The levels I share continue to act with precision each day. How Precise?
We had exact 2 level range. From the failed break down at 578 to the rally into close at 583!
The value I provide in THT PRO is my process, reading the price action, and most importantly helping you avoid over trading and getting your time back! I focus most of my trading energy between 10:30 and 11:30 and then again after 3pm. That is 2 very profitable hours! With Spectre Specials usuals coming in the last 30 minutes if they are going to come. We didn’t use to get these Specials all the time but lately they seem to be coming 2 or more times a week!
What is Two Hour Trading?
Two Hour Trading is my system for finding and executing trades while spending less than two hours a day trading. My goal is to earn 100-300% on the capital I risk while waiting for 1000%+ gain trades to set up. Key benefits include:
High-quality trades with excellent reward vs. risk
Avoiding overtrading and losses from it
Trading to win vs. trading not to lose
Stacking the deck in your favor
Trade Recap for Mon May 12
GOLD BOLD ITALIC = price action signal
SOFT YELLOW = thinking/anticipation
WHITE REGULAR = action to take/taken
GREEN REGULAR = trades I should have taken
SPY / SPX
So I started the day off with my normal process. Expectations of some gap fill. We got a 2 level move. I also knew that if that level held after 11:30, there was a decent shot we go to 581-583 by end of day. So I used my SPX levels. that gave me 5846 as the target. Guess where SPX closed.. 5845.37!!!
My levels are my super power, while my process and techniques are the skills I’ve developed to take advantage of that!
So with a 5846 target, I made a plan, I wanted 5820c for under $6. They were $10-12 when I shared the idea to scoop under $6. So how did I come up with this. Super simple. I expected 578 to be retested one more time before the move higher. There was heavy volume at $6 during the 10:30 dip. So that told me buyers under $6. I figured let me put orders at $6, $4, and $3. Giving myself a $5000 max loss budget.
Unfortunately I only at $6 and $4 filled for $2200 position and didn’t get $3 for 10 more bring total position to $5200. If i was wrong and 577 broke, I quickly would have lost $2-3000 by the time my stops would have filled. The best part. I took a nap at 11:30am. I woke up about 90 minutes later to see the idea was playing out! :) and was able to secure profits at 20-25 goals! why $25? 5846-5820 = $26. Close enough and its over 300-400% gains! Nothing more to do. This is trading to win mindset! Now if you were focused on reading price action, you would have seen 578 retested and volume come in again above $4 on 5820c! They were buying the dip!! maybe I got lucky or maybe I got planning skills. It doesn’t matter, because I will keep doing the same process as long as it continues to work over the long run. If it fails me 5+ times in a row, I’ll have to size down or stop until it works again. It would mean the environment is no longer conducive to my process. REMEMBER THAT, i don’t abandon my process because I lose a handful of time. I evaluate what is different.
I could have gone short on that push fail at 1pm but I wasn’t super confidant on it AND I wanted to stick to my planned trading hours since, the last month has shown us that we get crap returns trading outside our prime trading windows.
Finally we got 581 retested in last 30 minutes. I told members I was hawking 5840c and 5830c as well as 5820p. At the time the contracts were still too expensive. We need more decay to get the wins. I was finally able to get positions filled for under $1 risking 50%. The puts got stopped and the calls paid.
I was set on seeing 5840+ so I believed I would get a 2-6 exit. So seeing the SPX 5840 chart, I thought maybe I’ll get a dip to 0.30. Guess what, I bottom ticked it!!! These ran exactly to $6 delivering 2000%. For those that have known me for awhile, I have this uncanny ability of calling near bottom prices for scooping!
What a day! I celebrated by hitting the gym again and going hard. My body is exhauasted this morning!
GET EXCITED. I’ll be publishing a book called Trading To Win: Stop trading to NOT lose. Title is still in the works. I plan to include exercises to help you improve your mindset and your trading. Leave a comment or send me a message if interested in the book. My birthday is coming in May - I hope to release this before then.
If you are busy and want to see my commentary and ideas in real time consider joining THT-PRO.
Education
How to Join a Strong Trend
The process I typically follow for joining a strong trend are as follows:
All day grinder: join on dips to 20ma
Multi-day grinder:
Join either on support test of morning lows or failed breakdown reversal at key level
Join at VWAP mid day or end of day
Keep it simple. Don’t chase, wait for support levels for great risk/reward entries!
Systematic Profit Taking
How do I take profits? I keep it relatively simple. Depending on the entry and range to the next levels I typically with take profits 50-100% of my profits at 3-10R and then raise stops to above entry with a goal of letting runners take me to the next level or 2 and to then reload if I believe we are consolidating before the next leg.
I then repeat the same process on the reload.
Trade Ideas - Plan for Tue May 13
Stick to process. The process and trade setups I teach works. Rinse and repeat over and over again. There will be losses. Any good system will have them. Being systematic also means the gains will repeat and come again too. If you keep changing your system/process trying in an effort to never lose a trade, you will never get to where you want to go.
Ideas
Overall we will need to see how market reacts to CPI. So far we got a pop and are basing above 583. A lot of names are gapping up but this is making me worried about a blow of top coming. I hate chasing long on gap ups so will need to see support established before going long.