Israel attacks Iran -- SPY drop 120 pt overnight! Is it BTFD or time to risk off. Trade Ideas for Fri Jun 13
What's stopping you from making 500-1000%? Stop overtrading, and make more in less time. Read on to learn how I do it.
Relatively quiet day yesterday, especially if you missed the opening run!!!! I know I missed it and I did on purpose! I’ll explain why and what I’m working on and doing.
For the previous 2 or 3 days we had multiple 500-1000% paying trades and they all came after 11am. So my logic is, why spend time dealing with the morning mayhem/risk. Unless i get a test of a major level in first 15 minutes I’m not gong to bother… Why? Because contracts are generally juiced and unless a large move comes will I make move than 200%.
Most of my recent major losses have come from trading the first hour and being impatient. So I purposefully am working on reducing my active trades significantly and to timeframes where i can position for insane risk/reward.
SPY / SPX
IDEA: SPY dip and rip off 598 target 603.50
no dip to 598 on open. SPY crossed 601.50 on open and back tested it during first hour. Let’s see what the opportunity was after seeing this confirmation as well as if got long at 9:55 after ORB15 high was tested.
Entry ORB 15 high: SPX 6050C. $2 → $8. 300% Potential or 6R using $1 risk
Entry 601.50 backtest: SPX 6050C. $3 → $8 166% Potential. or 5R using $1 risk
Conclusion: Should have traded the ORB 15 breakout.
IDEA: SPY will reject 603.50
Having missed the long I had to wait for 603.50 to come. I started in early got stopped and then waited for the actual confirmation and reentered. It was essentially a 100% payer trade, but it was $5R! A high probable trade. Why? 2 Level move from open and RSI Divergence on the rejection.
I quickly realized we maybe in for consolidation after seeing the vwap bounce. There was a long opportunity off the SPY double bottom on vwap, but I wasn’t convinced we would clear over 603.50. If anything I wanted to get position short for a swing there but I was too exhausted to think clearly.
PLAN: check in every hour for more trade setups otherwise do nothing
I decided I’ve have a great week. My account is up almost 200% from this weeks’ trading. I don’t need to force a trade today. We also had major winners in swings from TSLA and 2 other great trades yesterday that I’ll cover.
The point is of the trades I alerted yesterday they all won or had small losses if it didn’t work. And most of the work was done within the first 2 hours of they day :)
ORCL
IDEA: ORCL will reach 202.50 to 205
Oracle had amazing earnings. I was looking to take 200c for $1-1.30 but they only dipped to 1.60 and I scooped at 1.90 target 4-5. They reached $4. The opening volume was insane!
Using $0.50 for risk. At $2 gain on 0.50 risk that is 4R in under 2 hours!
UNH
IDEA: UNH will reach 320+
Moe from the THT PRO group like to pay attention to consolidation breakout and mentioned that UNH was a possibility. We combine our strengths. He finds possible movers, I provide the plan.
I alerted that I like UNH 315c for under 1.50 and ideally get an entry of 0.50-1.
It dipped to $1. sold 50% at $2 to make it risk free and the rest at 5 for 400%!
There is massive opportunity in this market. Are you taking advantage? Literally have planned and alerted trades that pay over 300-1000%! You will need patience to wait for entries and the exits. But if you have self discipline or trust bracket orders, my process can help you get the results you want.
Thoughts from Thursday price action:
SPY reject 603.50 multiple times. Possible gap down.
Look for reaction to 597-598 in coming days.
Buying seems exhausted near term at the highs.
OVERNIGHT: support levels broke reaching 592 support on news that Israel attack Iran
We will need to see how markets react today
What is Two Hour Trading?
Two Hour Trading is my system for finding and executing trades while spending less than two hours a day trading. My goal is to earn 100-300% on the capital I risk while waiting for 1000%+ gain trades to set up. Key benefits include:
High-quality trades with excellent reward vs. risk
Avoiding overtrading and losses from it
Trading to win vs. trading not to lose
Stacking the deck in your favor
If you are busy and want to see my commentary and ideas in real time consider joining THT-PRO.
Education
How to Join a Strong Trend
The process I typically follow for joining a strong trend are as follows:
All day grinder: join on dips to 20ma
Multi-day grinder:
Join either on support test of morning lows or failed breakdown reversal at key level
Join at VWAP mid day or end of day
Keep it simple. Don’t chase, wait for support levels for great risk/reward entries!
Systematic Profit Taking
How do I take profits? I keep it relatively simple. Depending on the entry and range to the next levels I typically with take profits 50-100% of my profits at 3-10R and then raise stops to above entry with a goal of letting runners take me to the next level or 2 and to then reload if I believe we are consolidating before the next leg.
I then repeat the same process on the reload.
Securing Profits on Options overnight
Sometimes you get this massive paper gains overnight on options but you can’t secure it right? Well if you have a big enough account and a margin account if you have calls you can. What you need to do is buy or sell the stock overnight. and the option turns into a hedge against that position essentially securing your profits.
Trade Ideas - Plan for Fri Jun 13
Stick to process. The process and trade setups I teach works. Rinse and repeat over and over again. There will be losses. Any good system will have them. Being systematic also means the gains will repeat and come again too. If you keep changing your system/process trying in an effort to never lose a trade, you will never get to where you want to go.
Ideas
With the spike in Oil, looming war with Iran/Israel and US given Trump’s remarks, will the market ignore global risks and jump back on BTFD. Over night over 50% of the losses have recovered and even AAPL is green!
VIX has spiked to 20, I was expecting it would be more so I’ve got mixed feeling on how the day will play out. Here is what I’m looking at.