Is the rally done? BTC slips, Musk laments TSLA stake. FDX guns for AMZN. My plan for Tuesday Jan 16.

Hope everyone enjoyed the long weekend. We have a lot to cover so lets get right into it.

Friday Price Action

SPY

After gapping up it filled the gap, dipped some and moved into consolidation type action. No surprise here ahead of the long weekend. I alerted this could happen over lunch and that I was done trading SPY for the day.

TSLA

My big payout came in trading TSLA. Friday morning I published this in the blog:

Paying members get the exact levels I’m using to plan trades as well as commentary for entries/exits.

Let’s review.

You can see how early we pushed and double topped at 225. Notice the second top pushes above the 225 level and the previous top but it can’t hold above.

I had take a long off the gap down into 220 level bounce targeting 225. I unfortunately missed my short entry at 0.30 on 220p when TSLA pushed into 225, however it did provide an entry around 0.50 when vwap broke and we saw the peach line rejecting. Notice how we flush right to the 217.70 target. This allowed me to plan a 2.80 exit. Don’t let 0.20 for the best entry let you miss out on over $2 of profit.

There were multiple trades here. the first vwap and flush into 220, and then the reload into 222 backtest for around 0.55. I was hoping for vwap test to scale in around 0.30-0.35 with some major size, but it turned before I could fill so I ended up adding aroun 0.72 and more at 1.20-1.40.

Here is what happened with those contracts.

There are few lessons to take from this chart:

1. Don’t stress about entering in first 15minutes or even first hour of the day. Often times you can get positioned for big moves after.

2. Targeting using the levels for entries and exits was magic!

3. Round 1 if you filled at 225, from 0.40 to 1.1 was almost 200% gains!

4. Round 2 from 0.5 to 3 is 500% gains

5. Because of 0DTE, take profits into spikes at 100-300% gains and plan for a reload for a round 2 for more patient payouts.

6. notice that when the contracts crossed high of day around 1.20 that is where it accelerated toward $3. This isn’t a surprise. I often talk about how breakouts/breakdowns work. We want backtests to occur so one can assume continuation of the move when it breaks past the previous move. That is what gave me confidence to add to the position above 1.20 instead of selling. I know that the 220c at at 217.50 will sell for at least 2.50 (a double from 1.20!)

Notice how this was all done before noon. Given the long weekend I was essentially done trading as well. This one trade met all my criteria for a high conviction scaled up trade. No need to keep hunting for more trades.

COIN

On Thurday I mentioned the sell the news play and that I was targeting 135. by end of day friday it hit 130. We took the the 145p on Thursday for $2.50-3. These hit $11 early Friday morning and almost 15 by end of day.!!! Great returns on Sell the News trade. 300% and 400% gains!

Plan for Tuesday

BTC breaks 42k over the weekend.

COIN dipped 126 in premarket. I’ll be watch 118-120 for a long or a 127 to form support as possible bounce spots. a break of 118 could carry COIN back to $100. overall watching dips to relong swing long.

Musk laments TSLA stake

Musk isn’t doing TSLA stock any favors with his comments. He said that he wish he had a larger stake in TSLA and since he doesn’t he rather innovate more outside TSLA at his other companies. TSLA is gapping down Tuesday morning

PLAN: 218-220 pop to get short. If selling continues, could see 205 this week. That said, I will need to start hawking for a gap down reversal trade as well. I’ll consider longs at 205 and 212 if price action aligns.

Fedex announced plans for an Amazon like online marketplace over the weekend

Not much volume in premarket/reaction to the news, but Fedex is sitting on 200dma and could get some love. I was hoping for a large gap up to get short.

SPY gapping down 3 points in premarket

I’m expecting some chop/consolidation until the next leg up starts as long as SPY holds 472.50. Its definitely much trickier as we have multiple levels colliding in the 472.50 to 478 range.

Overall watch for comments/ideas in Edge for a trade.

Be careeful today as we have mixed signals. AMD/NVDA gapping up, much of tech and SPY gapping down. UVXY is gapping up and 10Y rates are back over 4%

Overall I don’t plan to open any trades until after 10:30 or 11am and might even wait until after 2pm. I want to get a read of what market it thinking.