Guard Gain above Pivot. Will SPY bounce today? Trade Ideas for Fri Sep 26
Yesterday SPY put an in decision candle. We took advantage of the range, nailing each direction!
Wild range and action yesterday!
My main ideas went out the window! I’ll have to do better. They kind of worked, but not to the letter like I’m use to.
That said, there were clear signals for direction and action if you were patient.
Trade 1: 2 level Gap down reversal long off ORB 15 low.
Trade 2: Bull Trap Fade
Trade 3: LOD Failed Breakdown Reversal
VIDEO LESSON of SPY/SPX Trade Ideas
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Plan for Wed Sep 24
Stick to process. The process and trade setups I teach works. Rinse and repeat over and over again. There will be losses. Any good system will have them. Being systematic also means the gains will repeat and come again too. If you keep changing your system/process trying in an effort to never lose a trade, you will never get to where you want to go.
Premarket momentum hints at a cautious bounce, but watch for reversal risks near resistance.
Market Context
SPY’s premarket close sits at 658.92, just above the pivot at 657.96 but below R1 resistance at 661.51, suggesting a mildly bullish bias after yesterday’s choppy close around 658. Recent 1-minute data shows consolidation with multiple failed breakdowns below 658, including volume spikes on bounces from 657 support levels over the past sessions. Chart patterns indicate potential for upward continuation if it holds the pivot, but a drop below 657 could trigger bearish momentum toward S1 at 654.03.
Key Events Today
8:30am - PCE Index
Key Levels and Their Significance
672.91 - Project R3.
665.43 - Resistance: Key overhead level from recent highs; clear rejection on 1-minute chart with volume spikes
661.51 - High Priority Resistance: Near-term barrier above premarket; multiple failed breakouts in past sessions with bounces on high volume, 75% probability of hold based on 3 recent tests, for day traders on pullbacks, prominent at open.
657.96 - Pivot: Central balance point; premarket holding above with consolidation, aligns with Fibonacci 50% retracement from recent low, 80% probability of support in range trading, versatile for all trader types, key throughout session.
654.03 - High Priority Support: Immediate downside protection; frequent bounces in data with volume spikes on breakdowns, 70% probability of reversal from historical holds, for scalpers on dips, active early if gap fills.
650.48 - Support: Deeper retracement level; multi-day low alignment with strong volume rejection, 55% probability based on 2x average volume on tests, swing traders watching for oversold, relevant in afternoon weakness.
643.01 - Support: Extreme downside target; rare touches but significant volume spikes on approaches in extended data, 45% probability of major reversal, for position traders, only if broad selloff occurs.
Tips for Recognizing When a Trade Idea Is in Play
Volume Confirmation: Look for >2x average volume on reversal candles at key levels to validate entry.
Candle Patterns: Wait for hammer/doji at support or shooting star at resistance before entering.
Price Action Hold: Ensure price respects the level with no close beyond it on 1-minute chart.
Momentum Shift: RSI divergence (e.g., higher low at support) signals reversal potential.
Time Alignment: Prioritize setups in first hour for open volatility or mid-session for range plays.
No-Trade Filter: Skip if premarket gap exceeds 1% without fill, indicating low-probability chase.
Disclaimer: Not financial advice; consult a professional.