Friday's PCE triggers gap Up to new highs premarket. Will it prank us today? My plan for Monday Apr 1
Friday's PCE triggers gap Up to new highs premarket. Will it prank us today? My plan for Monday Apr 1
Good morning traders! Hope you all enjoyed the long weekend! I travelled to Columbia over the weekend and am visiting for 2 months. Outside of training, my goal today is to establish a hard core training and wellness schedule, and interview personal trainers.
Friday’s PCE news has triggered a gap up in SPY but most of the tech names I monitor don’t appear to be participating.
Thursday we also started seeing some risk off behavior in “MEME” names such as RDDT, DJT, and MSTR. Names that compared to intrinsic value are over priced.
In Thursday’s blog I wrote
And based Thursday price action I was right to consider not opening trades in the names I was watching or to go smaller.
However I was able to row my account by over 25% by paying attention to social media and price action on secondary stock names. I’ll go over that in the review and eduction section.
Introduction (for New Readers)
Welcome to my blog on Two Hour Trading, your daily source for market insights and trading opportunities. In this blog, I will provide you with a comprehensive analysis of the market, educational lessons, and trade ideas to help you stay ahead in your trading journey and best of all doing it less than two hours a day.
What Subscribers Get
Subscribers to this blog will receive daily updates on market analysis, educational content, and up to three trade ideas each morning, all based on real-life examples and my personal approach to trading.
NOTE: screenshots from chat are from Edge Trade Planner. A platform available to THT PRO members. Join Us for live commentary and planning. Note my goal is to actively trade less than 2 hours a day finding 1 to 4 great trades a day.
What is Two Hour Trading?
It’s my system for finding and executing trades while spending less than two hours a day trading. My goal is to earn 100-300% on the capital I risk while waiting for 1000%+ gain trades to setup. Key benefits:
High Quality trades with great reward vs risk
Avoid Overtrading and losses from it
Trading to Win vs Trading to Not Lose
Stacking the deck in your favor
2024 Alert Leaderboard
(I’ve decided to include a leaderboard so you can see what potential the 2 Hour Trading System has)
The following is based on entry alerts.
Mar 27 - SPX 5230c Entry $1.20 - High after $19 ($1200 → $19000 potential)
Mar 26 - SPX 5215p Entry $1.20 - High after $11.50 ($1200 → $11500 potential)
Mar 25 - SPX 5210p Entry $0.50 - High after $6.50 ($500 → $6500 potential)
Mar 22 - LULU 390p Entry $1.25 - High after $5.7 ($1125 → $5700 potential)
Mar 21 - SMCI 1000c Entry $4.80 - High after $22.60 ($480 → $2260 potential)
Mar 21 - SMCI 1000c Entry $4.80 - High after $22.60 ($480 → $2260 potential)
Mar 20 - SPX 4200c Entry $7.50 - High after $27.12 ($750 → $2710 potential)
Mar 19 - SPX 4170c Entry $1.10 - High after $11.30 ($1100 → $11300 potential)
Mar 18 - GOOGL 147p Entry $0.65 - High after $1.71 ($650 → $1700 potential)
*runner reached $2Mar 18 - SMCI 900p Entry $10 - High after $30 ($1000 → $3000 potenital)
*runner reached $60!Mar 14 - SPX 5150c Entry $3 - High after $10.50 ($3000 → $10500 potential)
Mar 12 - SPX 5150c Entry $4 - High after $27.50 ($4000 → $27500 potential)
Mar 11 - SPX 5120c Entry $3 - High after 7.50 ($3000 → $7500 potential)
Mar 8 - SMCI 1150p Entry $5 - High after $56.20 ($500 → $5620 potential)
Mar 8 - AMD 220c Entry $0.50 - High after $7.65 ($500 → $7650 potential)
Mar 7 - SPX 5175c Entry $0.50 - High after $2.40 ($500→ $2400 potential)
Mar 6 - SPX 5120c Entry $3.50 - High after $12+ ($3500→ $12000 potential)
Mar 5 - SPX 5070c Entry $0.50 - High after $10.75 ($500 → $10750 potential)
** alerted 0.30 entry wanted. dipped to 0.40. entered at 0.50Mar 5 - SPX 5070p Entry $1 - High after $13.50 ($1000 → $13500 potential)
Mar 4 - SMCI 1200c Entry $33 - High after $61 ($3300 —> $6100 potential)
Mar 1 - SPX 5120c Entry $2 - High after $20 ($2000 —> $20000 potential)
Feb 29 - SPX 5095c Entry 0.50 - High after $10 ($500 —> $10000 potential)
Feb 29 - SPX 5100c Entry 0.30 - High after $5+ ($300 —> $5000 potential)
Feb 27 - TSLA 195p Entry 0.90 - High after $2.30+ ($900 —> $2300 potential)
Feb 26 - SPX 5070p Entry 0.20 - High after $2. ($200 —> $2000 potential)
Feb 23 - NVDA 800p Entry 2.50 - High after $25.11 ($3000 → $25110 potential)
**Dipped to 2.57 (had to chase entry 3)
Feb 23 - NVDA 820c Entry 2.25 (swing from Thursday) - High after $25.00 ($2250 → $25000 potential)
Feb 22 - SPX 4090c Entry $2.50 - High after $9.20 ($2500 → $9200 potential)
Feb 16 - SMCI 1000p Entry $11 - High after $195 ($1100 → $19500 potential)
Feb 15 - TSLA 195c. Entry $1.20 - High after 5.95 ($1200 → $5950 potential)
Feb 14 - NVDA 720p. Entry $4.5 - High after $12 ($4500 → $12000 potential)
Feb 13 - SPX 4955p. Entry $5 - High after $34 ($5000 → $34000 potential)
Feb 12 - ARM 180c. Entry $1.20 - High after $14.10 ($1200 → $14000 potential)
Feb08 - ARM 100c. Entry $5 - High after $27.50. ($5000 → $27500 potential)
Feb07 - TSLA 185c. Entry $2.53 - Hight after $5.60 ($2530 —> $5600 potential)
Feb05 - SPX 4940c. Entry $3 - High after $16.60 ($3000 → $16,600 potential)
Feb02 - AMD 180c. Entry 0.15 - High after $1 ($1500 —> $10000 potential)
Jan 29 - SPX 4910c. Entry $1 - High after $20 ($1000 —> $20000 potential)
Jan 26 - NFLX 570c. Entry $0.50 - High after $9.85 ($500 → $9850 potential)
Jan 25 - TSLA 185p. Entry $1.5 - High after $6.3 ($1500 → $6300 potential)
Jan 24 - SPX 4890p Entry $1.50 - High after $22 ($1500 → $22000 potential)
Jan 24 - SPX 4880p Entry $0.50 - High after $12 ($500 → $6000 potential)
Jan 17 - SPX 4740c Entry $0.20 - High after $2.80 ($200→ $2800 potential)
Jan 17 - SPX 4740c Entry $1.20 - High after $12 ($1200→ $12000 potential)
**Past Performance is not indicative of future results
For live alerts and market commentary click the button below.
Thursday’s Price Action (Education)
You don't try to make $100,000 ...You don’t start by saying, I’m going to make the biggest most profitable trade and turn $1000 into $100,000 and fix all my bad trades before.
You say, I’m going to plan and execute 1 trade as perfectly as I can today. You do that every single day, and soon you'll have a $100,000 and likely much more!
SPY/SPX
Very early into Thursday’s session I alerted that I like selling bear calls on 5260/5265 for $2. Why? Because the actin and volume was light and I was confident I could lock most for under $1 and possibly ride it to 0.
As you can see anticipating that traders will go on holiday, and volume would be light allow for a stress free trade.
Imagine, being able to do this credit sell an walk way and know you have a high probability of a win? My first goal was to sell 80% at 0.90 which leaves me plenty of buffer if a some rip comes after lunch. Based on the price action I was hunting for a squeeze like we got previous day, but a strange thing happened. I had dip buy orders in lace for a long but the risk/reward price I wanted for fills didn’t come.
Then a rally started 40 minutes before I was looking for it to. This was a big change in behavior from the whole week. At this point I warned THT PRO members that I do not trust this push at all I am looking to short at 424.50 and cancelled the call orders. That early rally imho was a masterful bait move! And I was right!
That short plan paid off. It was easiest to just add the the bear calls at 2.50 to 3 area. I essentially had $1 of risk for $2.50-$3 gain and I felt a 80-90% chance of winning and this goes to 0. Notice how quickly it dropped to 0 and we got to collect all that premium ;)
Be sure to add credit selling to your tool kit. It’s a powerful technique for consolidation days and for reversal days. There is a reason big money plays this game. You should consider at least learning why and playing it too.
MSTR
What a payer. I was looking for MSTR to cross 2000 and then share it as an idea, but the selling started earlier than expected. Around 9:15 I shared with THT-PRO members that we need to keep an eye on this.
My target for the drop was 1650 and that is exactly where it got to. Grabbing the 1700p for $7 which hit $80! I was out most 30-50 area. I entered the short after the peachline broke and it was clear 1720 was about to break.
After the 1650 level was reached I scalped a quick long but didn’t hold for the move almost all the way back to vwap. That is where next trade idea came in — It will head down for another leg. Contracts were juiced so I decide to trade this 2 ways.
Credit trade - do 1800/1805 bear calls for 4.50. ($4500 gain per $500 risk with imo 90% probability win)
Directional trade - do 1650 puts for $7 targeting $50. We got a fast pop to 13-14 if I remember correctly but the contracts were gaining bids so I quickly took my gains and called it day and let the credit trade pay me.
Now because these are not cash settled, I want to exit by the last 30minutes to avoid an issue.
Key Lessons
After review the trades above you should learn the following:
If lots of consolidation use credit selling using the levels as a guide for contract selection
On meme names when contracts are juiced and you have a high probable direction consider credit sells
Focus on meme names on 0DTE contracts for the most bang for your buck.
Trade Ideas - Plan for Monday Apr 1
Stick to process. The process and trade setups I teach works. Rinse and repeat over and over again. There will be losses. Any good system will have them. Being systematic also means the gains will repeat and come again too. If you keep changing your system/process trying in an effort to never lose a trade, you will never get to where you want to go.
I’m likely going to have a short bias today anf focus on shorts and credit selling calls 1 level OTM.
/10YR is back over 4.2
Today I will be watching: SPY, MSTR, and NVDA