FDX rockets, LULU smoked, NKE reverses gains, AAPL breakup? My plan for Friday March 22
SPY consolidated on Thursday, will it resume grind on Friday?
Good morning traders!
It’s Friday! And that means we could find some big pay day plays! There is a lot to cover in todays’s blog. I’ll start off with education and review of yesterday’s price action follow by my thoughts on FDX, LULU, NKE, AAPL, COIN, and SPY and how I plan to trade them.
Introduction (for New Readers)
Welcome to my blog on Two Hour Trading, your daily source for market insights and trading opportunities. In this blog, I will provide you with a comprehensive analysis of the market, educational lessons, and trade ideas to help you stay ahead in your trading journey and best of all doing it less than two hours a day.
What Subscribers Get
Subscribers to this blog will receive daily updates on market analysis, educational content, and up to three trade ideas each morning, all based on real-life examples and my personal approach to trading.
NOTE: screenshots from chat are from Edge Trade Planner. A platform available to THT PRO members. Join Us for live commentary and planning. Note my goal is to actively trade less than 2 hours a day finding 1 to 4 great trades a day.
What is Two Hour Trading?
It’s my system for finding and executing trades while spending less than two hours a day trading. My goal is to earn 100-300% on the capital I risk while waiting for 1000%+ gain trades to setup. Key benefits:
High Quality trades with great reward vs risk
Avoid Overtrading and losses from it
Trading to Win vs Trading to Not Lose
Stacking the deck in your favor
2024 Alert Leaderboard
(I’ve decided to include a leaderboard so you can see what potential the 2 Hour Trading System has)
The following is based on entry alerts.
Mar 21 - SMCI 1000c Entry $4.80 - High after $22.60 ($480→ $2260 potential)
Mar 21 - SMCI 1000c Entry $4.80 - High after $22.60 ($480→ $2260 potential)
Mar 20 - SPX 4200c Entry $7.50 - High after $27.12 ($750 → $2710 potential)
Mar 19 - SPX 4170c Entry $1.10 - High after $11.30 ($1100 → $11300 potential)
Mar 18 - GOOGL 147p Entry $0.65 - High after $1.71 ($650 → $1700 potential)
*runner reached $2Mar 18 - SMCI 900p Entry $10 - High after $30 ($1000 → $3000 potenital)
*runner reached $60!Mar 14 - SPX 5150c Entry $3 - High after $10.50 ($3000 → $10500 potential)
Mar 12 - SPX 5150c Entry $4 - High after $27.50 ($4000 → $27500 potential)
Mar 11 - SPX 5120c Entry $3 - High after 7.50 ($3000 → $7500 potential)
Mar 8 - SMCI 1150p Entry $5 - High after $56.20 ($500 → $5620 potential)
Mar 8 - AMD 220c Entry $0.50 - High after $7.65 ($500 → $7650 potential)
Mar 7 - SPX 5175c Entry $0.50 - High after $2.40 ($500→ $2400 potential)
Mar 6 - SPX 5120c Entry $3.50 - High after $12+ ($3500→ $12000 potential)
Mar 5 - SPX 5070c Entry $0.50 - High after $10.75 ($500 → $10750 potential)
** alerted 0.30 entry wanted. dipped to 0.40. entered at 0.50Mar 5 - SPX 5070p Entry $1 - High after $13.50 ($1000 → $13500 potential)
Mar 4 - SMCI 1200c Entry $33 - High after $61 ($3300 —> $6100 potential)
Mar 1 - SPX 5120c Entry $2 - High after $20 ($2000 —> $20000 potential)
Feb 29 - SPX 5095c Entry 0.50 - High after $10 ($500 —> $10000 potential)
Feb 29 - SPX 5100c Entry 0.30 - High after $5+ ($300 —> $5000 potential)
Feb 27 - TSLA 195p Entry 0.90 - High after $2.30+ ($900 —> $2300 potential)
Feb 26 - SPX 5070p Entry 0.20 - High after $2. ($200 —> $2000 potential)
Feb 23 - NVDA 800p Entry 2.50 - High after $25.11 ($3000 → $25110 potential)
**Dipped to 2.57 (had to chase entry 3)
Feb 23 - NVDA 820c Entry 2.25 (swing from Thursday) - High after $25.00 ($2250 → $25000 potential)
Feb 22 - SPX 4090c Entry $2.50 - High after $9.20 ($2500 → $9200 potential)
Feb 16 - SMCI 1000p Entry $11 - High after $195 ($1100 → $19500 potential)
Feb 15 - TSLA 195c. Entry $1.20 - High after 5.95 ($1200 → $5950 potential)
Feb 14 - NVDA 720p. Entry $4.5 - High after $12 ($4500 → $12000 potential)
Feb 13 - SPX 4955p. Entry $5 - High after $34 ($5000 → $34000 potential)
Feb 12 - ARM 180c. Entry $1.20 - High after $14.10 ($1200 → $14000 potential)
Feb08 - ARM 100c. Entry $5 - High after $27.50. ($5000 → $27500 potential)
Feb07 - TSLA 185c. Entry $2.53 - Hight after $5.60 ($2530 —> $5600 potential)
Feb05 - SPX 4940c. Entry $3 - High after $16.60 ($3000 → $16,600 potential)
Feb02 - AMD 180c. Entry 0.15 - High after $1 ($1500 —> $10000 potential)
Jan 29 - SPX 4910c. Entry $1 - High after $20 ($1000 —> $20000 potential)
Jan 26 - NFLX 570c. Entry $0.50 - High after $9.85 ($500 → $9850 potential)
Jan 25 - TSLA 185p. Entry $1.5 - High after $6.3 ($1500 → $6300 potential)
Jan 24 - SPX 4890p Entry $1.50 - High after $22 ($1500 → $22000 potential)
Jan 24 - SPX 4880p Entry $0.50 - High after $12 ($500 → $6000 potential)
Jan 17 - SPX 4740c Entry $0.20 - High after $2.80 ($200→ $2800 potential)
Jan 17 - SPX 4740c Entry $1.20 - High after $12 ($1200→ $12000 potential)
**Past Performance is not indicative of future results
For live alerts and market commentary click the button below.
Thursday’s Price Action (Education)
You don't try to make $100,000 ...You don’t start by saying, I’m going to make the biggest most profitable trade and turn $1000 into $100,000 and fix all my bad trades before.
You say, I’m going to plan and execute 1 trade as perfectly as I can today. You do that every single day, and soon you'll have a $100,000 and likely much more!
Yesterday was a bit hectic and also required a bit of patience.
SPY/SPX
The primary trade I wanted on SPY was a short of the level above. or a long after a gap fill or a failed breakdown reversal at 522. None of my levels were met yesterday and so there wasn’t one of my normal trades to be had. So I skipped trading SPY until after lunch.
I noticed that at 12:30 we had a failed breakout, but I wasn’t convinced of the gap fill coming, and contracts were a bit juiced so I decided on a credit sell. SPX 4160/4165 bear calls for $2, basically betting that we don’t make new highs on the day. These went to 0, allowing one to collect full premium.
I also shared the following:
SPX 5250 finally dipped to $1.90 during last hour and ran to $7.50 at the close
SPX 5245 filled at 0.90 and pushed to $3.
Actually 5245 did give a wild opportunity of a dip into 0.35 during last minute, but I was done making new bets.
There is a lot to learn on yesterday chart.
If levels are not met it is ok to skip trades
Look for well defined failed breakout on days after a large run and gap up
If unsure on how far a move will go or contracts don’t make the risk/reward worth it, consider selling premium
SMCI
I was off on which level we would get a dip into, so missed the best entry, but there were multiple long entries leading to the run on 995
Here is the logic for each entry form left most Go Long
failed breakdown reversal on 909.50 level, and higher lows formed, and second cross back over 917 (target 950/963)
VWAP cleared, buying on dip (target 950/963)
VWAP backtest, long entry to join larger trend (target 963/995)
Peach line reclaimed a second time, and a higher low bounce (target 963/995)
Summary Review of Market Price Action
After a large run on Wednesday, Thursday was more or less profit taking/consolidation on SPY, while chips made a rally. This biggest challenge imho on SPY is the AAPL DOJ suit news triggering selling created some sell pressure and headwinds on SPY.
Educational Lessons
From the price action review you should have learned the following:
Wait for the levels to plan trades
Use triple tops to define an intermediate level if a key level isn’t reached.
Be patient. Let trades come to your entry prices (i had to wait over an hour to get filled)
Use /plan in Edge Trade Planner to quickly create trade plans.
Learn how to recognize failed breakdown reversals at key levels.
Trade Ideas - Plan for Friday Mar 22
Stick to process. The process and trade setups I teach works. Rinse and repeat over and over again. There will be losses. Any good system will have them. Being systematic also means the gains will repeat and come again too. If you keep changing your system/process trying in an effort to never lose a trade, you will never get to where you want to go.
There is a lot of news and action to cover today: FDX, LULU, NKE, AAPL, COIN, TSLA, and SPY
In the paid section I’ll cover the levels and contracts I’m hawking.
Here are my thoughts on each stock
FDX
Monster earnings and $5B buyback announced. Overall I’m looking for a pop and some profit taking into 270-285 in coming days. (maybe less) To me, it seems like some strange financial engineering going on. How are they paying for a $5B buyback, on net earnings of $800m this quarter. Likely via debt or it will be a slow program.
LULU
Wrecked. I’m looking to join short after any short covering bounce. Only interested in a swing long if it gets 380 in coming days. Will be watching for a clean trade setup for a $5-10 move if one develops today.
NKE
Initially rallied but dumped after changing strategy to retailers. Not sure how this plays out, but it seems like some uncertainty introduced and so will watch for pops to go short.
AAPL
We had a nice short yesterday thank’s to Moe’s quick news share. Overall, nasty drop. The question is, will sellers crack recent support?
COIN
As btc has been dipping, coin was holding up until it broke vwap. looking for pops today, to get short targeting 250, unless /btc rallies.
TSLA
Wrecked again on production slow down in China. Watching pops for a short. Ideally gets a BTFD move first
SPY
Gapping down premarket toward some gap fill. The question is doe bids show up? Ideally I would like to see a gap flll and even a fast dip back into 217-219 to back test the breakout and then take a swing long.