Fake news delivers 20x+ returns. Wll we get a second green day? Trade Ideas for Apr 8
Have you ever had a Spectre Special? A trade that does 500%+ in under an hour?
I was looking for a dip and rip off 480 yesterday. SPY dipped to 482 and crossed vwap minutes later. we starter scooping at $3 and added as it dropped to 1.50, and then again as it crossed over vwap. Standard High Probability win gap down reversal setup. My initial target T3 target was 18. I was sick and hadn’t but sell orders in advance and since it was early in the day I want to see 17 at least come before I sold. Before I knew it itr ripped to 25 and I locked majority it. then I market order out as it reject $100!! at $60. What a miss for having size and selling too soon, but you can’t predict Fake News. What you can do is stick to process. After it broke out i was holding runners in case 527 target came and these got to $150-500. Yes I know it’s unlikely but I’ve seen 100-200x before. So I gave it a chance.
Anyways there are a few lessons. Don’t sweat what you could have made. Focus on execution. I did the right thing planning a gap down reversal. I executed per process adding on dip per thesis and then size on cross of vwap. Given the huge drop in market I chose to ignore my default sell targets because I was thinking a minimum 10R gainer was coming. I used the fast planner from edge and didn’t choose exit by Move. That is the one thing I could have done better yesterday. But considering I had not sleep and was super sick, I think I did ok for autopilot.
The one thing I could have done better, is after vwap cross, I could have generated a revised plan for Exit by Move. Guess what the T1 target was…
How insane the planner! Hod was $100!!! that is a 50x play!, and over 30x from the original $3 entry.
Guys this isn’t luck that I find these trades. It’s process and execution. I did what I was suppose to, and ‘luck’ was someone manipulated the market and we were already positioned to take advantage of that. I was plan to collect 5x minimum. By holding and letting the fake news do its thing we were able to sell for insane gains.
REMINDER: THT PRO for new members is going to $500/mo on April 10. I know I’m one of the more “expensive” memberships but imho, it is incredibly cheap considering the mindset and behavior changes members experience plus the sheer number of high quality trades that can let you pay for a year’s service in 1 day. If you have friends that want to join or are considering joining, be sure to join before rates go up.
Fake News
So after the news was determined to be faked, I should jump on 5250 or 5200 bear calls, but I wasn’t all the way there. I was basically content. No need to trade more. We had a massive win in under 1 hour. I went to sleep after that.
I’m sure there will be some investigation by the SEC to see if anyone profited from the rumor being introduced to Reuters.
What is Two Hour Trading?
Two Hour Trading is my system for finding and executing trades while spending less than two hours a day trading. My goal is to earn 100-300% on the capital I risk while waiting for 1000%+ gain trades to set up. Key benefits include:
High-quality trades with excellent reward vs. risk
Avoiding overtrading and losses from it
Trading to win vs. trading not to lose
Stacking the deck in your favor
Trade Recap for Mon Apr 07
GOLD BOLD ITALIC = price action signal
WHITE REGULAR = action to take/taken
GREEN REGULAR = trades I should have taken
SPY / SPX
Super wild day! Contracts were juiced but dips got bought yesterday leading to a gap up today.
GET EXCITED. I’ll be publishing a book called Trading To Win: Stop trading to NOT lose. Title is still in the works. I plan to include exercises to help you improve your mindset and your trading. Leave a comment or send me a message if interested in the book.
If you are busy and want to see my commentary and ideas in real time consider joining THT-PRO.
Education - How to Join a Strong Trend
The process I typically follow for joining a strong trend are as follows:
All day grinder: join on dips to 20ma
Multi-day grinder:
Join either on support test of morning lows/failed breakdown reversal
Join at vwap mid day or end of day
Keep it simple. Don’t chase, wait for support levels for great risk/reward entries!
Education - Systematic Profit Taking
How do I take profits? I keep it relatively simple. Depending on the entry and range to the next levels I typically with take profits 50-100% of my profits at 3-10R and then raise stops to above entry with a goal of letting runners take me to the next level or 2 and to then reload if I believe we are consolidating before the next leg.
I then repeat the same process on the reload.
Trade Ideas - Plan for Tuesday Apr 08
Stick to process. The process and trade setups I teach works. Rinse and repeat over and over again. There will be losses. Any good system will have them. Being systematic also means the gains will repeat and come again too. If you keep changing your system/process trying in an effort to never lose a trade, you will never get to where you want to go.
Ideas
As expected we are gapping up today in premarket. The question is does this hold? Imho sellers are exhausted near term and a relieve bounce is coming, but without strucutral changes to the tariffs we are one announcement away from more lows. That said it possibly ok to go long with a multi-month timeline, and being prepared to take profits and wait for another drop to reload.
Here are my thoughts for today (Please note I’m still stupid sick so I might miss a clue for what may actually play out today)
Key events this week: FOMC minutes tomorrow and banks start to report e/r and guidance. This could give the market more direction starting on Thursday.