Earnings Season KickOff! Heavy News Ahead! Will BTFD return? Trade ideas for Mon Jul 14
What's stopping you from making 200-500%? Stop overtrading, and make more in less time. Read on to learn how I do it.
Good morning!
Friday was wild for our swings! SPY gave a gap down and clearly consolidate all day with 624 being rejected. This morning it clearly tagged my level below for a failed breakdown reversal. The question is, will this dip buy be sustained into the banks earnings and CPI/PPI data coming in.
I’ll cover the opportunities we found last week/on Friday for education and then share my thoughts and today and this week.
SPY/SPX
Morning trade setup - What’s my default go to trade setup that I love? 2 level gap reversals. What did we get on Friday? Exactly that.
Now I’ve been playing with /ES and futures so instead of taking calls so early in the day I chose futures. In premarket I had alerted how I too /ES 6285 calls. We got a nice 10-15 point pop on that on the open and then dip on 6280 and quick reversal after the first 15 minutes.
For options, using my SPX levels, 6270c would have been the way to go in the first 15min. Here is what they did.
Basically given the consolidation behavior in SPY on Friday, shooting for reliable 50-100% gains was a solid way to go. 2.5 to 7 essentially came twice.
Afternoon Trade Setup - I had too much of a long bias wanting a gap fill, so missed some clean short setups but nailed the dips.
It was clear after 2:45 and the break under 9/20 ma that upside was exhausted but I was stubborn. so waited for the flush into vwap (and then some). And grabbed some calls for a quick 200%
We then got a clean backtest to reshort. That is what I missed that I’m pissed about. It was clear but since range was tight I wanted 6265p for a cheaper price. 6260p would have paid at 0.50 though.
ITS ANNOYING, but you can’t force trades. You can see the setups, but the risk/reward has to be worth it especially with 0DTE.
Monday July 14 Premarket - SPY dropped exactly to 619.80 level in premarket delivering another 2 level gap down and “reversal”. The question now is will regular market hours give us a double bottom/retest and then a gap fill and move higher OR will we gap fill and dump?
MSTR
Looks like we are getting 430+ target or $10+ on our 420c!!! Great swing!
On Friday I wrote I would be locking in 80% of my swing in the first 15minutes.
Here is what happened on our MSTR 420calls and why this is such solid planning and execution.
The profits on MSTR basically made it unimportant to force trades or make more money. 2.50→18!!! Over 600% profit overnight!
You know my motto - take advantage of momo and skewed risk/reward. I generally avoid swing trades, but if I see 500-1000% potential I’ll take the overnight risk!
There is massive opportunity in this market. Are you taking advantage? Literally have planned and alerted trades that pay over 300-1000%! You will need patience to wait for entries and the exits. But if you have self discipline or trust bracket orders, my process can help you get the results you want.
Thoughts from Thurs price action:
SPY made a new high and was poised got 630+
Trump tariffs comments may have triggered overnight selling
BTFD bias imho continues until 619 breaks. We dipped to 621.40 overnight.
What is Two Hour Trading?
Two Hour Trading is my system for finding and executing trades while spending less than two hours a day trading. My goal is to earn 100-300% on the capital I risk while waiting for 1000%+ gain trades to set up. Key benefits include:
High-quality trades with excellent reward vs. risk
Avoiding overtrading and losses from it
Trading to win vs. trading not to lose
Stacking the deck in your favor
If you are busy and want to see my commentary and ideas in real time consider joining THT-PRO.
Education
How to Join a Strong Trend
The process I typically follow for joining a strong trend are as follows:
All day grinder: join on dips to 20ma
Multi-day grinder:
Join either on support test of morning lows or failed breakdown reversal at key level
Join at VWAP mid day or end of day
Keep it simple. Don’t chase, wait for support levels for great risk/reward entries!
Systematic Profit Taking
How do I take profits? I keep it relatively simple. Depending on the entry and range to the next levels I typically with take profits 50-100% of my profits at 3-10R and then raise stops to above entry with a goal of letting runners take me to the next level or 2 and to then reload if I believe we are consolidating before the next leg.
I then repeat the same process on the reload.
Securing Profits on Options overnight
Sometimes you get this massive paper gains overnight on options but you can’t secure it right? Well if you have a big enough account and a margin account if you have calls you can. What you need to do is buy or sell the stock overnight. and the option turns into a hedge against that position essentially securing your profits.
Trade Ideas - Plan for Mon Jul 14
Stick to process. The process and trade setups I teach works. Rinse and repeat over and over again. There will be losses. Any good system will have them. Being systematic also means the gains will repeat and come again too. If you keep changing your system/process trying in an effort to never lose a trade, you will never get to where you want to go.
Ideas
Premarket SPY gave me the 619.80 level back test i wanted but with all the new and CPI/PPI data coming this week how will market react. Well for the most part we focus on level to level trading and it doesn’t matter for intraday scalps except to inform bias.