Did the bulls beat the bears off? Will the gap up have follow through? My plan for Thurs Apr 4
NFLX META pushing
Yesterday was tricky and I missed a great short trade getting into my own head vs reading the price action. One of the most difficult things in trading is recognizing the larger trend but trading against it. Given yesterday mornings dip and rip, I was firmly in the camp that the bulls are in charge. I also said in the morning that I wouldn’t be surprised if we got a yank to test lows again and then rally.
In today’s blog, I’ll review the dip and rip and how to go long, the short trade I missed, and finally the overnight swing long in SPY/SPX.
Finally I’ll share my trade ideas for today.
Introduction (for New Readers)
Welcome to my blog on Two Hour Trading, your daily source for market insights and trading opportunities. In this blog, I will provide you with a comprehensive analysis of the market, educational lessons, and trade ideas to help you stay ahead in your trading journey and best of all doing it less than two hours a day.
What Subscribers Get
Subscribers to this blog will receive daily updates on market analysis, educational content, and up to three trade ideas each morning, all based on real-life examples and my personal approach to trading.
NOTE: screenshots from chat are from Edge Trade Planner. A platform available to THT PRO members. Join Us for live commentary and planning. Note my goal is to actively trade less than 2 hours a day finding 1 to 4 great trades a day.
What is Two Hour Trading?
It’s my system for finding and executing trades while spending less than two hours a day trading. My goal is to earn 100-300% on the capital I risk while waiting for 1000%+ gain trades to setup. Key benefits:
High Quality trades with great reward vs risk
Avoid Overtrading and losses from it
Trading to Win vs Trading to Not Lose
Stacking the deck in your favor
2024 Alert Leaderboard
(I’ve decided to include a leaderboard so you can see what potential the 2 Hour Trading System has)
The following is based on entry alerts.
Apr 3 - SPX 5175/5170 bull put - Entry $1.50 ($1500 premium potential)
Apr 2 - SPX 5175/5170 bull put - Entry $1.50 ($1500 premium potential)
Apr 2 - SPX 5205/5200 bull put - Entry $1.50 ($1500 premium potential)
Mar 27 - SPX 5230c Entry $1.20 - High after $19 ($1200 → $19000 potential)
Mar 26 - SPX 5215p Entry $1.20 - High after $11.50 ($1200 → $11500 potential)
Mar 25 - SPX 5210p Entry $0.50 - High after $6.50 ($500 → $6500 potential)
Mar 22 - LULU 390p Entry $1.25 - High after $5.7 ($1125 → $5700 potential)
Mar 21 - SMCI 1000c Entry $4.80 - High after $22.60 ($480 → $2260 potential)
Mar 21 - SMCI 1000c Entry $4.80 - High after $22.60 ($480 → $2260 potential)
Mar 20 - SPX 4200c Entry $7.50 - High after $27.12 ($750 → $2710 potential)
Mar 19 - SPX 4170c Entry $1.10 - High after $11.30 ($1100 → $11300 potential)
Mar 18 - GOOGL 147p Entry $0.65 - High after $1.71 ($650 → $1700 potential)
*runner reached $2Mar 18 - SMCI 900p Entry $10 - High after $30 ($1000 → $3000 potenital)
*runner reached $60!Mar 14 - SPX 5150c Entry $3 - High after $10.50 ($3000 → $10500 potential)
Mar 12 - SPX 5150c Entry $4 - High after $27.50 ($4000 → $27500 potential)
Mar 11 - SPX 5120c Entry $3 - High after 7.50 ($3000 → $7500 potential)
Mar 8 - SMCI 1150p Entry $5 - High after $56.20 ($500 → $5620 potential)
Mar 8 - AMD 220c Entry $0.50 - High after $7.65 ($500 → $7650 potential)
Mar 7 - SPX 5175c Entry $0.50 - High after $2.40 ($500→ $2400 potential)
Mar 6 - SPX 5120c Entry $3.50 - High after $12+ ($3500→ $12000 potential)
Mar 5 - SPX 5070c Entry $0.50 - High after $10.75 ($500 → $10750 potential)
** alerted 0.30 entry wanted. dipped to 0.40. entered at 0.50Mar 5 - SPX 5070p Entry $1 - High after $13.50 ($1000 → $13500 potential)
Mar 4 - SMCI 1200c Entry $33 - High after $61 ($3300 —> $6100 potential)
Mar 1 - SPX 5120c Entry $2 - High after $20 ($2000 —> $20000 potential)
Feb 29 - SPX 5095c Entry 0.50 - High after $10 ($500 —> $10000 potential)
Feb 29 - SPX 5100c Entry 0.30 - High after $5+ ($300 —> $5000 potential)
Feb 27 - TSLA 195p Entry 0.90 - High after $2.30+ ($900 —> $2300 potential)
Feb 26 - SPX 5070p Entry 0.20 - High after $2. ($200 —> $2000 potential)
Feb 23 - NVDA 800p Entry 2.50 - High after $25.11 ($3000 → $25110 potential)
**Dipped to 2.57 (had to chase entry 3)
Feb 23 - NVDA 820c Entry 2.25 (swing from Thursday) - High after $25.00 ($2250 → $25000 potential)
Feb 22 - SPX 4090c Entry $2.50 - High after $9.20 ($2500 → $9200 potential)
Feb 16 - SMCI 1000p Entry $11 - High after $195 ($1100 → $19500 potential)
Feb 15 - TSLA 195c. Entry $1.20 - High after 5.95 ($1200 → $5950 potential)
Feb 14 - NVDA 720p. Entry $4.5 - High after $12 ($4500 → $12000 potential)
Feb 13 - SPX 4955p. Entry $5 - High after $34 ($5000 → $34000 potential)
Feb 12 - ARM 180c. Entry $1.20 - High after $14.10 ($1200 → $14000 potential)
Feb08 - ARM 100c. Entry $5 - High after $27.50. ($5000 → $27500 potential)
Feb07 - TSLA 185c. Entry $2.53 - Hight after $5.60 ($2530 —> $5600 potential)
Feb05 - SPX 4940c. Entry $3 - High after $16.60 ($3000 → $16,600 potential)
Feb02 - AMD 180c. Entry 0.15 - High after $1 ($1500 —> $10000 potential)
Jan 29 - SPX 4910c. Entry $1 - High after $20 ($1000 —> $20000 potential)
Jan 26 - NFLX 570c. Entry $0.50 - High after $9.85 ($500 → $9850 potential)
Jan 25 - TSLA 185p. Entry $1.5 - High after $6.3 ($1500 → $6300 potential)
Jan 24 - SPX 4890p Entry $1.50 - High after $22 ($1500 → $22000 potential)
Jan 24 - SPX 4880p Entry $0.50 - High after $12 ($500 → $6000 potential)
Jan 17 - SPX 4740c Entry $0.20 - High after $2.80 ($200→ $2800 potential)
Jan 17 - SPX 4740c Entry $1.20 - High after $12 ($1200→ $12000 potential)
**Past Performance is not indicative of future results
For live alerts and market commentary click the button below.
Wednesday’s Price Action (Education)
You don't try to make $100,000 ...You don’t start by saying, I’m going to make the biggest most profitable trade and turn $1000 into $100,000 and fix all my bad trades before.
You say, I’m going to plan and execute 1 trade as perfectly as I can today. You do that every single day, and soon you'll have a $100,000 and likely much more!
SPY/SPX
I was sure which way things would play out and that is why I make bull and bear plans and then look for price action to match.
Yesterday I wrote:
You can see how by the open we had a quick dip on 417.50 and then a rip, we want to look for a dip on vwap to go long. I was able to get 5220c for $5 and sell for $10.50 on the push toward 21. I needed one more leg to get the 15-20 target I had.
Instead we push and topped out just shy of 521. SPY then spent the rest of the day consolidating. During Powell’s speech we got an opportunity to reload between 4 and 6 but the pushes only got to 10 and I wasn’t getting the $12 sell targets so trailing stops stopped me out for small gains.
At this point market continue to consolidate. I was watching for a failed breakout but we didn’t get that candle/setup which had me doubt the short entry (plus my larger belief of upside coming by Friday).
That said, I took a small long on vwap and quickly got stopped. Here is the miss, notice how SPY bounced on vwap around. 2:20p, but then rejected the peach line. That was the first clue for possible downside, especially if we get 2 red closes under vwap.
I ended up chasing short for a quick 100% gainer, however, if I entered when I first saw the hint, the trade would have been a 10x payout. Frankly I was worn out after watching action all day and after seeing the action after Powell’s speach.
Finally the SPY flushed back into 518. I looked for a short in case of trend join. I was more than happy to risk $2 on small size and be wrong (I had made $4 with size on first drop). Why? If I was wrong and another sell leg developed, the payout would have been 5x.
At the lows, I also mentioned how I’ve seen this pattern before.
After letting things settle, I ending up alerting I was reloading SPX 5250c for Friday. This morning they hit $13.50 for parital sells.
Net some, I didnt get any 5 or 10x trades, but my taking profits into resistance and buying dips and doing quick scalps I was able to grow account 8%.
Let’s see if I can do 20-50% over next 2 days. Seems like big opportunities are developing.
Trade Ideas - Plan for Thursday Apr 4
Stick to process. The process and trade setups I teach works. Rinse and repeat over and over again. There will be losses. Any good system will have them. Being systematic also means the gains will repeat and come again too. If you keep changing your system/process trying in an effort to never lose a trade, you will never get to where you want to go.
Yesterday I wrote, the 10Y is still over 4.20 so I have a bearish bias, however I will also consider longs off support to take advantage of short squeezes.
That is playing out. I’d like to see SPY rally into 423-424, and if we then get a spike on /10Y, load up on puts.
Overall market may going sideways for a bit until earning season starts back up.
If 10Y drops back under 4 area, we could see the rally resume.
Today I will be watching: SPY, TSLA, and NFLX