A Day of Almost and missed triggers - Daily SPY Review for 2025-08-27
Here is a breakdown of Today's SPY action. Great lessons today.
Hey traders, ever feel like the market's playing a slow-burn game of "will it or won't it" break out? Today was that kind of tease—starting sleepy around 644.50, grinding upward with some morning wiggles, then a steady climb to 647.37 before closing at 646.62. Overall, it was a mildly bullish trend with some volatility (range of about 3 points), choppy early action turning into a afternoon push, backed by increasing volume spikes (hello, 1.4M at close!). Like a coffee buzz that hits after lunch, it rewarded patience but punished overeager moves. Let's dive in and unpack what worked—or didn't—so you can level up tomorrow. There was some profit taking into 647.30 which is of concern for bulls.
Key Levels Performance
Only levels within the day's range (644.42 low to 647.37 high) get the spotlight—no ghost levels here!
644.21 (Central Pivot): Held as support early on; tested once around 9:31 (low 644.42, just above), with a quick bounce on moderate volume (153k). Not broken, acted as a consolidation floor with 2-3 minor touches before the uptrend—solid 80% historical vibe, but low drama today.
647.7 (High Priority Resistance): Approached but not quite tested (high 647.37 at 15:56); no break or rejection, as price stalled just shy with rising volume (238k). Untouched, so it loomed like a "maybe next time" ceiling—volume built nearby, hinting at future resistance potential.
Trade Ideas Review
Morning ideas were all about reversal plays at key spots, but the market stayed in a tight range, dodging all triggers like a pro boxer. Here's the honest breakdown—no sugarcoating my "sure things" that fizzled! (I didn’t include all the ideas because the levels were all not tested)
Trade Name: Failed Breakout Reversal Short at 647.7
Setup Triggered: No (price peaked at 647.37, never reached entry)
Entry Executed: No
Stop Loss Hit: N/A
Targets Reached: N/A
Final Outcome: No Entry
Lessons Learned: The setup eyed a rejection, but the market tiptoed below without testing—reminds me of waiting for a bus that never shows. Next time, consider wider confirmation zones for these near-misses; patience paid off by avoiding a false short in the uptrend.Trade Name: No-Trade Zone if Range Holds
Setup Triggered: Yes (tight range all day, no breaks)
Entry Executed: N/A (no trade)
Stop Loss Hit: N/A
Targets Reached: N/A
Final Outcome: No Entry (capital preserved—win!)
Lessons Learned: Spot on for today's snooze-fest; sitting out beat chasing ghosts. Remember, not trading is trading—saves you from my early flops where I forced moves and lost big.
Performance Summary
Total Trades Triggered: 0 (the No-Trade Zone "triggered" as a smart sit-out)
Winning Trades: 0 (0%)
Losing Trades: 0 (0%)
Average Win: N/A
Average Loss: N/A
Largest Win: N/A
Largest Loss: N/A
Win Rate: N/A (but hey, no losses = 100% survival rate!)
THT PRO Trade Ideas (Dynamic ideas from reading price action)
Trade Name: HOD breakout after lunch Setup Triggered: Yes (previous hod of 646.60 turned into support)
Entry Executed: Yes
Stop Loss Hit: No Targets Reached: Partial (Option contracts reached sell targets) Final Outcome: Over 100% gained with over 3R (rewards vs risk) Lessons Learned: Should have entered earlier around 2.50 on 6480c. Also could have anticipated breakout and scooped SPX 6485c as a yolo. with a $5 target, it dipped to 080 during lunchtime dip.Trade Name: Short 647.50 on reject
Setup Triggered: NO (got close)
Entry Executed: N/A (no trade)
Stop Loss Hit: N/A
Targets Reached: N/A
Final Outcome: No Entry (capital preserved—win!)
Lessons Learned: Spot on idea that could have yield 500-1000%. Add an ATR related zone so if it get's close and thee is volume into the highs without follow through go ahead and position short. SPX 6480p went from 0.80 to $10!Trade Name: GO LONG on VWAP backtest in last hour. Setup Triggered: Yes diped to vwap with overshot and bounced
Entry Executed: yes. I alerted scooping SPX 6480c for 2-2.50 with 3.4, 5, and 8 sell targets.
Stop Loss Hit: No
Targets Reached: Yes. Alered final exits at 7.50 (peaked at 7.80).
Final Outcome: No Entry (capital preserved—win!)
Lessons Learned: Spot on read that dip would get bought but bad execution. Sold too much too soon around 3-3.5. I shoud have noticed the heavy buying where we went long so I could be more patient for the payout. Why wasn't I patient? I was worried I was in revenge mode for missing the 10 bagger short.
THT PRO Performance Summary
Total Trades Triggered: 2 (the No-Trade Zone "triggered" as a smart sit-out)
Winning Trades: 2 (100%)
Losing Trades: 0 (0%)
Average Win: 150%
Average Loss: 0
Largest Win: 250% from entry
Largest Loss: 0
Win Rate: 100% BOOM!
Key Insights for Tomorrow
Market took a dip after hours post NVDA earnings but I have a feeling we may recover by morning.
Being patient for key tevel tests for reversals is my core paying setup. SPY 643.50 and 647.50 will likely be in focus.
Preserve capital on no-triggers—today's zero entries avoided needless risks, turning potential losses into learning gold.
Market Patterns Observed
Time-based: Morning chop (9:30-10:30) with quick up/down tests, lunch lull (12:00-13:00) in tight 646 range, then afternoon surge (14:00+) to highs—like a workday: frantic start, sleepy middle, energetic close. NOTICE: lunchtime back tested ORB 15 high.
Volume patterns: Spikes >200k during key pushes (e.g., 10:19 to 646.26, 15:59 close at 1.4M), low vol in mid-day consolidation—volume "woke up" for trends, ghosted during ranges.
Price action: Bullish grinding with higher lows (644.42 early, no deep pulls), stalling near 647—classic "stair-step" uptrend with minor pullbacks.
Support/resistance: Pivots like 644.21 held firm on light tests; upper levels capped without breaks, reinforcing range behavior.
Risk Management Lessons for Premarket Ideas
Position Sizing: N/A today (no entries), but 0.5-point risks in ideas were spot-on for volatility—keeps it bite-sized for scared beginners, like portion control on a diet.
Stop Loss Placement: Tight 0.5-point stops would've protected if triggered, but loosen slightly in trends to avoid whipsaws—busy parents, this saves you from babysitting charts.
Target Setting: Realistic 1:3+ R/R held up in theory, but untested; scale for shallower moves in ranges—pre-retirees, think stability: aim for consistent small wins over home runs.
Whew, what a day of "almosts" on premarket ideas —I have countless stories where I chased trades in similar range and got burned, but today we dodged it together! In the last week, I've nailed 3 range reversals (not bragging, just sharing so you skip my scars). What's your go-to move on choppy days? Spill in the comments—let's make tomorrow's wins epic! 🚀
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