CPI tomorrow. Will we consolidate or break range today? Day Trading Ideas for Apr 9
Inside today's blog, learn how I recognize and profit from consolidation days securing 5.3% account growth yesterday
Good morning traders. As markets await CPI, I expected yesterdays action to be chop and within 2-3 points of SPY 517.50. So that meant max upside of 520.50 and max downside of 514.50. Using this and reading the price action, I’ll show how I planned credit sell trades to take advantage of the expected chop.
We also had news over the weekend which validated our swing long on TSLA and gave us an opportunity to sell into strength on the gap up.
I’ll also show you how I used Edge’s scanner to plan a trade on SMCI. Filtering through the scanner, finding golden nugget, and then planning trades is a bit of an art, and I’ll cover a few tips for how I like to use it to help me.
I’d say there is a better than 50/50 chance that we get some range today ahead of CPI tomorrow. Last time I was thinking consolidation ahead of on the day before and they ripped it. Will they do the same this today?
Introduction (for New Readers)
Welcome to my blog on Two Hour Trading, your daily source for market insights and trading opportunities. In this blog, I will provide you with a comprehensive analysis of the market, educational lessons, and trade ideas to help you stay ahead in your trading journey and best of all doing it less than two hours a day.
What Subscribers Get
Subscribers to this blog will receive daily updates on market analysis, educational content, and up to three trade ideas each morning, all based on real-life examples and my personal approach to trading.
NOTE: screenshots from chat are from Edge Trade Planner. A platform available to THT PRO members. Join Us for live commentary and planning. Note my goal is to actively trade less than 2 hours a day finding 1 to 4 great trades a day.
What is Two Hour Trading?
It’s my system for finding and executing trades while spending less than two hours a day trading. My goal is to earn 100-300% on the capital I risk while waiting for 1000%+ gain trades to setup. Key benefits:
High Quality trades with great reward vs risk
Avoid Overtrading and losses from it
Trading to Win vs Trading to Not Lose
Stacking the deck in your favor
2024 Alert Leaderboard
(I’ve decided to include a leaderboard so you can see what potential the 2 Hour Trading System has)
The following is based on entry alerts.
Apr 8 - SPX 5225/5230 bear calls - Entry $1.20 ($1200 premium potential)
Apr 8 - SPX 5200/5195 bear puts - Entry $0.10 ($1000→ $8000 potential)
Apr 4 - SPX 5250p - Entry $4 ($4000→ $100k potential)
Apr 4 - SPX 5180p - Entry $1.30 ($1300 > $32k potential)
Apr 3 - SPX 5175/5170 bull put - Entry $1.50 ($1500 premium potential)
Apr 2 - SPX 5175/5170 bull put - Entry $1.50 ($1500 premium potential)
Apr 2 - SPX 5205/5200 bull put - Entry $1.50 ($1500 premium potential)
Mar 27 - SPX 5230c Entry $1.20 - High after $19 ($1200 → $19000 potential)
Mar 26 - SPX 5215p Entry $1.20 - High after $11.50 ($1200 → $11500 potential)
Mar 25 - SPX 5210p Entry $0.50 - High after $6.50 ($500 → $6500 potential)
Mar 22 - LULU 390p Entry $1.25 - High after $5.7 ($1125 → $5700 potential)
Mar 21 - SMCI 1000c Entry $4.80 - High after $22.60 ($480 → $2260 potential)
Mar 21 - SMCI 1000c Entry $4.80 - High after $22.60 ($480 → $2260 potential)
Mar 20 - SPX 4200c Entry $7.50 - High after $27.12 ($750 → $2710 potential)
Mar 19 - SPX 4170c Entry $1.10 - High after $11.30 ($1100 → $11300 potential)
Mar 18 - GOOGL 147p Entry $0.65 - High after $1.71 ($650 → $1700 potential)
*runner reached $2Mar 18 - SMCI 900p Entry $10 - High after $30 ($1000 → $3000 potenital)
*runner reached $60!Mar 14 - SPX 5150c Entry $3 - High after $10.50 ($3000 → $10500 potential)
Mar 12 - SPX 5150c Entry $4 - High after $27.50 ($4000 → $27500 potential)
Mar 11 - SPX 5120c Entry $3 - High after 7.50 ($3000 → $7500 potential)
Mar 8 - SMCI 1150p Entry $5 - High after $56.20 ($500 → $5620 potential)
Mar 8 - AMD 220c Entry $0.50 - High after $7.65 ($500 → $7650 potential)
Mar 7 - SPX 5175c Entry $0.50 - High after $2.40 ($500→ $2400 potential)
Mar 6 - SPX 5120c Entry $3.50 - High after $12+ ($3500→ $12000 potential)
Mar 5 - SPX 5070c Entry $0.50 - High after $10.75 ($500 → $10750 potential)
** alerted 0.30 entry wanted. dipped to 0.40. entered at 0.50Mar 5 - SPX 5070p Entry $1 - High after $13.50 ($1000 → $13500 potential)
Mar 4 - SMCI 1200c Entry $33 - High after $61 ($3300 —> $6100 potential)
Mar 1 - SPX 5120c Entry $2 - High after $20 ($2000 —> $20000 potential)
Feb 29 - SPX 5095c Entry 0.50 - High after $10 ($500 —> $10000 potential)
Feb 29 - SPX 5100c Entry 0.30 - High after $5+ ($300 —> $5000 potential)
Feb 27 - TSLA 195p Entry 0.90 - High after $2.30+ ($900 —> $2300 potential)
Feb 26 - SPX 5070p Entry 0.20 - High after $2. ($200 —> $2000 potential)
Feb 23 - NVDA 800p Entry 2.50 - High after $25.11 ($3000 → $25110 potential)
**Dipped to 2.57 (had to chase entry 3)
Feb 23 - NVDA 820c Entry 2.25 (swing from Thursday) - High after $25.00 ($2250 → $25000 potential)
Feb 22 - SPX 4090c Entry $2.50 - High after $9.20 ($2500 → $9200 potential)
Feb 16 - SMCI 1000p Entry $11 - High after $195 ($1100 → $19500 potential)
Feb 15 - TSLA 195c. Entry $1.20 - High after 5.95 ($1200 → $5950 potential)
Feb 14 - NVDA 720p. Entry $4.5 - High after $12 ($4500 → $12000 potential)
Feb 13 - SPX 4955p. Entry $5 - High after $34 ($5000 → $34000 potential)
Feb 12 - ARM 180c. Entry $1.20 - High after $14.10 ($1200 → $14000 potential)
Feb08 - ARM 100c. Entry $5 - High after $27.50. ($5000 → $27500 potential)
Feb07 - TSLA 185c. Entry $2.53 - Hight after $5.60 ($2530 —> $5600 potential)
Feb05 - SPX 4940c. Entry $3 - High after $16.60 ($3000 → $16,600 potential)
Feb02 - AMD 180c. Entry 0.15 - High after $1 ($1500 —> $10000 potential)
Jan 29 - SPX 4910c. Entry $1 - High after $20 ($1000 —> $20000 potential)
Jan 26 - NFLX 570c. Entry $0.50 - High after $9.85 ($500 → $9850 potential)
Jan 25 - TSLA 185p. Entry $1.5 - High after $6.3 ($1500 → $6300 potential)
Jan 24 - SPX 4890p Entry $1.50 - High after $22 ($1500 → $22000 potential)
Jan 24 - SPX 4880p Entry $0.50 - High after $12 ($500 → $6000 potential)
Jan 17 - SPX 4740c Entry $0.20 - High after $2.80 ($200→ $2800 potential)
Jan 17 - SPX 4740c Entry $1.20 - High after $12 ($1200→ $12000 potential)
**Past Performance is not indicative of future results
For live alerts and market commentary click the button below.
Monday’s Price Action (Education)
You don't try to make $100,000 ...You don’t start by saying, I’m going to make the biggest most profitable trade and turn $1000 into $100,000 and fix all my bad trades before.
You say, I’m going to plan and execute 1 trade as perfectly as I can today. You do that every single day, and soon you'll have a $100,000 and likely much more!
SPY/SPX
Yesterday I wrote that I was looking for consolidation within 2-3 pt range around 517.50. With the gap up we essentially consolidated within a 2 pt range.
At the open we had a gap up and quickly SPY sold to fill the gap, and then dipped again during 30minutes and then rallied to 520 by the end of the first hour. At this point I was watching for does trend form or faii? The clue, the failed push over 520, the slam under 519.85 and so when we pushed back on 519.85 around 11, I alerted a credit sell trade that went to 0 by end of day.
By being patient for the entry, there wasn’t more than a 0.20 drawdown before this trade started working. We got a nice flush into 0.25, 30 minutes later. The nice thing about this trade was time savings, I didn’t have to baby sit it. I just placed orders and profit take profit orders and let it work. This is a great option for buy individuals who want to allocate 1-2 hours in getting positioned on a trade and walking away.
So how do I recognize chop day vs trend day? It depends on reactions to levels. since we gapped up then filled the gap and then pushed to a new high, if today was a trend day, it should have held over 520 after the first 60-90 minutes, but instead it quickly slammed down. That was the clue. Later in the day, the these was validated when you could see the market bouncing up and down around vwap and vwap was essentially flat lined after 1pm. At this point one could do credit sells use contracts one strike outside one level above and below. you can go closer, but then take on much more risk.
NVDA
This was a bit tricky. I was initially bullish as I mentioned yesterday because of the 880 reclaim and was looking for a dip and rip off 875. But guess what happened? 875 broke!
This put me back in the bear camp. I couldn’t chase the short so I waited. I noticed the double top on 880 and then on break back below 877.50 started short on 860 puts. Overall target was 858-864. On the flush into a new low, was the first spot to profit taking, but on the push back over 870, was the spot to stop out.
I’m sharing this trade because I want you to learn how an idea is invalidated and then how one can use the fact that a level is broken to establish a thesis on direction, then being patient for a retracement / back test of a level for an entry, with price action confirming the action.
SMCI
Edge Trade Planner Strikes again!
How do I SMCI from the Scanner as being interesting? It comes down to context.
In the hourly chart above you can see how SMCI had pulled back to the 910 breakout/reversal level.
SMCI was recently 1180 and last time we dipped toward 900, there was a rally..
Into the lows I saw the following action:
So based on the 920 contracts and chart I wanted to have a $27 average and a stop of $22. I started small long at 31, then added on dips. I did get chopped and sized down for $1 loss but as soon as it started working again was able to jump in quickly with more size targeting $37-40 for the first exits. And it worked! not massive %gain on contracts, but the potential was there. Given that yesterday made 3 red days. I’ll be watching for the same trade again today unless NVDA breaks 858 in which case we could see a leg down in AI chip names. In theory we are at levels to accumulate for next leg up.
Trade Ideas - Plan for Tuesday Apr 9
Stick to process. The process and trade setups I teach works. Rinse and repeat over and over again. There will be losses. Any good system will have them. Being systematic also means the gains will repeat and come again too. If you keep changing your system/process trying in an effort to never lose a trade, you will never get to where you want to go.
Today I will be watching: SPY, TSLA, and NVDA again