CPI dip and rip, FOMC on deck, AMD/AVGO rally is NVDA next? My plan for trading Wed Dec 13.

Trade Review/Education

Yesterday, the open was a little bit tricky. Per the premarket prep video, I started watching for a long around 461 and that I was expecting roughly a 3 pt range, so 461 to 464. We got exactly that.

We dipped just under 461 and I alerted with a plan to lock in at 3R and 10R.

so at 6 and 10. My goal on this first trade was to get a gap fill and then wait and see what happens after lunch. In retrospect. I should have sold 50% at 3R, and got down to 20% since at 10R ($10), and left 20% of the day with stops at entry.

Over lunch we based and a long trade setup.

Using my levels, I targeted 4644 to be reached by the close and scooped some 4640c for $1 and tried to fill size at 0.40 but no luck.

However $1—>$4 is a great trade!

So that was the SPY trades.

Also took AAPL 197.50/200 vertical as a yolo for 0.20. Let’s see if we get a nutty move after FOMC.

That brings us to AMD.

I missed the swing long on this so what do we do? We hawk for a short.

AMD faded perfectly to the 136 watchlist level

which then gave me a great risk/reward entry to flip long. IF AMD clears 140, we could see 144-150+ this week.

Planning is everything. I wanted 0.50, the contracts had hit a high of 2.70+ so I was being a real cheap bastard for this yolo. As the day continued, the contracts dropped but were near $1 at 136 so I make long plan.

By the close these had spiked up 60% and I locked in 3/4 with a plan to add on dips today.

In case you are wondering, this is the Edge generated plan for the swing.

Let’s see if works.

So overall yesterday plans worked. I tried a couple of shorts as well that got quickly stopped.

Plan for Wed Dec 13

If we gap up and rip on the open, I will look for a gap up reversal scalp ahead of FOMC. Overall I want to be out 80-100% of my positions before the meeting. I’m thinking we could grind/rally into noon and then maybe we see some derisking/selling ahead of the 2pm announcements.

Overall the process doesn’t change. Look for dips and failed breakdowns on key support levels to get long and ride for 1 to 2 levels and taking profit at 3R, 10R and ride the rest until before FOMC.

I have a history of getting punched in the gut trading the immediate action after FOMC, so I will be away from screens between 2pm and 2:40p. I will then evaluate the price action and look for a trade to ride into the close.

Key levels to watch for:
SPY over 466 could take us to 470s

SPY break of 462 could take us to 460 and then 458.

I would not be surprised if today’s price action after FOMC is a clearing/reset day and that whatever happens today, we do the opposite tomorrow.

AAPL, over 197 can see 200+

AMD dip and rip over 138, could take us to 144.

MSFT gapping up nicely, watching for gap fill and then 377.50c.

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As always, be patient. Plan your trades, let the trades come to you and then execute your plans.

If you need help planning and documenting your trades, let me know.