Burnout is real. Take care of your health. Does SPY's 2 red day and bounce pattern shift to 2 red weeks and bounce? My plan for Monday March 18
FOMC this week
Good morning traders.
I’m sorry I didn’t publish on Friday. I had been averaging 4 hours a sleep a night and it caught up to me. I slept 12 hours straight and woke up confused and tired around 12.
There are 2 important lessons here. One which I have to get so much better at is to take care of my health. Consistent regular full sleep is necessary to trade well. I managed about 50% account growth last week on limited sleep BUT with so much opportunity it should have been closer to 150-200% AND the only reason I managed 50% was because acting on my systems and process are muscle memory so there is less thinking and more taking action based on what I should be doing.
The second lesson I want you to learn is recognizing when your mind/body is not where it should be for trading. I sent a message to members that I was burnt out and needed to take the day off. I wasn’t in any mental shape to open trades and there was too much risk I would make a mistake in trade execution or in trade planning so I took the best action I could — take the day off and rest. Capital preservation is more important than “must make money everyday.”
Thanks for all the well wishes and support. I was able to rest up and even decided to treat myself to dinner and brunch in bogota. (a $1500 trip). I decided to extend my stay and trade/workout/explore here for a few days.
Let’s get into the fun stuff. Though I didn’t trade Friday, let’s review the price action, then get into the plan for today and what I’m watching for this week.
Introduction (for New Readers)
Welcome to my blog on Two Hour Trading, your daily source for market insights and trading opportunities. In this blog, I will provide you with a comprehensive analysis of the market, educational lessons, and trade ideas to help you stay ahead in your trading journey and best of all doing it less than two hours a day.
What Subscribers Get
Subscribers to this blog will receive daily updates on market analysis, educational content, and up to three trade ideas each morning, all based on real-life examples and my personal approach to trading.
NOTE: screenshots from chat are from Edge Trade Planner. A platform available to THT PRO members. Join Us for live commentary and planning. Note my goal is to actively trade less than 2 hours a day finding 1 to 4 great trades a day.
What is Two Hour Trading?
It’s my system for finding and executing trades while spending less than two hours a day trading. My goal is to earn 100-300% on the capital I risk while waiting for 1000%+ gain trades to setup. Key benefits:
High Quality trades with great reward vs risk
Avoid Overtrading and losses from it
Trading to Win vs Trading to Not Lose
Stacking the deck in your favor
2024 Alert Leaderboard
(I’ve decided to include a leaderboard so you can see what potential the 2 Hour Trading System has)
The following is based on entry alerts.
Mar 14 - SPX 5150c Entry $3 - High after $10.50 ($3000 → $10500 potential)
Mar 12 - SPX 5150c Entry $4 - High after $27.50 ($4000 → $27500 potential)
Mar 11 - SPX 5120c Entry $3 - High after 7.50 ($3000 → $7500 potential)
Mar 8 - SMCI 1150p Entry $5 - High after $56.20 ($500 → $5620 potential)
Mar 8 - AMD 220c Entry $0.50 - High after $7.65 ($500 → $7650 potential)
Mar 7 - SPX 5175c Entry $0.50 - High after $2.40 ($500→ $2400 potential)
Mar 6 - SPX 5120c Entry $3.50 - High after $12+ ($3500→ $12000 potential)
Mar 5 - SPX 5070c Entry $0.50 - High after $10.75 ($500 → $10750 potential)
** alerted 0.30 entry wanted. dipped to 0.40. entered at 0.50Mar 5 - SPX 5070p Entry $1 - High after $13.50 ($1000 → $13500 potential)
Mar 4 - SMCI 1200c Entry $33 - High after $61 ($3300 —> $6100 potential)
Mar 1 - SPX 5120c Entry $2 - High after $20 ($2000 —> $20000 potential)
Feb 29 - SPX 5095c Entry 0.50 - High after $10 ($500 —> $10000 potential)
Feb 29 - SPX 5100c Entry 0.30 - High after $5+ ($300 —> $5000 potential)
Feb 27 - TSLA 195p Entry 0.90 - High after $2.30+ ($900 —> $2300 potential)
Feb 26 - SPX 5070p Entry 0.20 - High after $2. ($200 —> $2000 potential)
Feb 23 - NVDA 800p Entry 2.50 - High after $25.11 ($3000 → $25110 potential)
**Dipped to 2.57 (had to chase entry 3)
Feb 23 - NVDA 820c Entry 2.25 (swing from Thursday) - High after $25.00 ($2250 → $25000 potential)
Feb 22 - SPX 4090c Entry $2.50 - High after $9.20 ($2500 → $9200 potential)
Feb 16 - SMCI 1000p Entry $11 - High after $195 ($1100 → $19500 potential)
Feb 15 - TSLA 195c. Entry $1.20 - High after 5.95 ($1200 → $5950 potential)
Feb 14 - NVDA 720p. Entry $4.5 - High after $12 ($4500 → $12000 potential)
Feb 13 - SPX 4955p. Entry $5 - High after $34 ($5000 → $34000 potential)
Feb 12 - ARM 180c. Entry $1.20 - High after $14.10 ($1200 → $14000 potential)
Feb08 - ARM 100c. Entry $5 - High after $27.50. ($5000 → $27500 potential)
Feb07 - TSLA 185c. Entry $2.53 - Hight after $5.60 ($2530 —> $5600 potential)
Feb05 - SPX 4940c. Entry $3 - High after $16.60 ($3000 → $16,600 potential)
Feb02 - AMD 180c. Entry 0.15 - High after $1 ($1500 —> $10000 potential)
Jan 29 - SPX 4910c. Entry $1 - High after $20 ($1000 —> $20000 potential)
Jan 26 - NFLX 570c. Entry $0.50 - High after $9.85 ($500 → $9850 potential)
Jan 25 - TSLA 185p. Entry $1.5 - High after $6.3 ($1500 → $6300 potential)
Jan 24 - SPX 4890p Entry $1.50 - High after $22 ($1500 → $22000 potential)
Jan 24 - SPX 4880p Entry $0.50 - High after $12 ($500 → $6000 potential)
Jan 17 - SPX 4740c Entry $0.20 - High after $2.80 ($200→ $2800 potential)
Jan 17 - SPX 4740c Entry $1.20 - High after $12 ($1200→ $12000 potential)
**Past Performance is not indicative of future results
For live alerts and market commentary click the button below.
Friday’s Price Action (Education)
You don't try to make $100,000 ...You don’t start by saying, I’m going to make the biggest most profitable trade and turn $1000 into $100,000 and fix all my bad trades before.
You say, I’m going to plan and execute 1 trade as perfectly as I can today. You do that every single day, and soon you'll have a $100,000 and likely much more!
SPY/SPX
SPY broke made a new low and then reclaimed the morning low to close back over 510. Given Friday was an OpEx day, it should not be a surprise to get chop and to expecting choppy action. I’ve seen 2 OpEx days give trend for over 4 to 5 points otherwise I often see it go no where and maybe stay within 2 points of the open.
TSLA
We nailed the short this week on TSLA and the question for Friday should be does it break 160 or not and if not consider a swing long. My thought are bids should show up at 150 and 160 levels.
TSLA gave a nice clan double top on open at 165 to make a short attempt targeting 160. But here is the thing to remember, market makers know a lot of sheep will like buy 160p and they will make an effort to support and collect that premium so I would hesitate to hold 160p for an end of day break. Instead I would take profits on spikes in premium. The 160p dipped to 0.30 and hit $1. Process wise I would have sold 80 between $0.75 at $1 and raised stops to 0.60 on last 20%.
The entry trigger would have been the double top on 165, the first red candle after the double top , or the back test on vwap around 9:47.
Summary Review of Market Price Action
Friday’s price action was basically a continuation of selling on the week but also a possible support formation with consolidation around SPY 510 and TSLA just over 160.
NVDA and SMCI also looked weak mid week. I was originally looking for 1100c and 1200c on SMCI at the beginning of the week for the SPY inclusion, but the price action was not constructive. It felt like too much selling was happening at highs with little big support and so I opted out of the yolo long and said as much to those messaging me about my thoughts on SMCI. Too many people now bullish. Remember that, when everyone is on the same side, often you can catch a reversal.
Educational Lessons
From the price action review you should have learned the following:
Wait for the levels to plan trades
Be patient. Let trades come to you. Make it OK to take only 1 trade a day.
Use /plan in Edge Trade Planner to quickly create trade plans.
Learn how to recognize failed breakdown reversals at key levels.
Trade Ideas - Plan for Monday Mar 18
Stick to process. The process and trade setups I teach works. Rinse and repeat over and over again. There will be losses. Any good system will have them. Being systematic also means the gains will repeat and come again too. If you keep changing your system/process trying in an effort to never lose a trade, you will never get to where you want to go.
Market is gapping up this morning after selling off last week. This week eyes will be on FOMC on Wednesday at 2pm. Given this my thoughts are that we may see 509-515 rangebound action into Wednesday.
I will be watching SPY today if it gives us a gap and go, but my inclination is to want to short on exhaustion for some gap fill and only go long after a minimum of 2 point dip.
For the last few months any 2 days of red were met with buying, now we have 2 red weeks, will it be met with buying?
I’ll be watching to see if SPY ends the week green after CPI. I’m not convinced the market is ready for a sell off and I do feel like there potential for BTFD to continue. The tell tale will be to see last week levels retested and to see if they are reclaimed or rejected.
I’m watching the following today: SPY, TSLA, ADBE