BTFD yesterday pays again, but has SPY topped out? What's up with the $1B in TSLA put volume? My plan for trading Tuesday Dec 5.

Let’s review yesterday’s action. By the time market openned SPY had broke the level 457 level I was looking to get long at. That is OK. So I started hawking to see the reaction to 457.

With 457 being broke and the 456.80 level triggering a rejection, it was time to get short. I indicated getting short on 455p at around 9:45. The contracts went from around 0.28 dipped to 0.23 before heading hitting 1.05 for a nice 300% gainer. I was caught up hawking NVDA and missed the entry on SPX short. unfortunately.

Given the early action,I really wanted to short SPY yesterday morning , but I missed entry and this is where discipline comes in. I’m motivated to go short because I know if 453.50 breaks, there will be a big payout, but I also know it was too much of a chase after the gap down. So I need to wait for it to be proven and in the mean time, look for the higher win rate trade for a failed breakdown reversal / BTFD trade.

So I waited to see some buying to come in, but more importantly I wanted to see the failed breakdown move.

Can you spot the failed breakdown? for me it is when we got green closed over 454.60 and confirmation over 454.90. This meant we should at least get to 456.70, and 459+ if we got the gap fill.

Being patient pays! I alerted a credit sell on 4545p. and the SPX 4560c went from $3 to $12!

That is a pretty solid day and not much more developed. The afternoon triggered a dip on vwap and then a squeeze back to and over morning highs however the close wasn’t able to hold those gains. I was thinking we setting up for SPX 4600+ by morning, but on second look, the hourly chart tells a different story.

SPY is right back into the consolidation range, and to me it is starting to looking like Friday’s push is a failed breakout. A close over 457.20 was sorely need to continue trend short term.

At this point and given how much put volume I saw in tech yesterday, I’m wondering if we will soon get a break of 453.50. Maybe jobless claims this week, or CPI next week will give the catalyst to breakout of this 2 week range.

What's up with the $1B in TSLA put volume

I like to use blackboxstocks and look for any unusual volume. TSLA’s volume caught my eye. I don’t recall the last time I saw nearly $1B in option volume.

We saw lots of 230 through 237.50 put buying and some 220puts. Seems to me like market things the Cybertruck event was a dud, and TSLA will be heading lower.

Another downside catalyst could be the Labor woes TSLA is facing in Europe.

Something I am keeping back of my mind is if all this put buying has forced new shorting on commons, will a large short squeeze get triggered on some sort of positive news?

I’ll be watching for a trade in TSLA this week.

Trading Plan for Tuesday Nov 5.

I’m likely going to starting positioning short / looking for a failed breakout move to get short and watch for 453.50 to break. I’m not convinced it happens today or tomorrow, but it is starting to feel like it can happen. Of course if we test and fhold and get the old faithful failed breakdown reversal setup, I’ll consider a small long, but I’m shifting toward wanting to get short vs resistance and long vs support and scalp for quick gains in between and then call it a day until we can get a trend move one way or another.

Remember being systematic especially during consolidation periods lets one consistently take profits from the market.

Any pop on TSLA toward 235 I will likely take 230 puts and maybe even 220 or 225 puts and then starting hawking for a long sub 200 or 220.