Botched it! How I deal with screwing up
Massive opportunity missed. Getting stopped out, and then not reloading with size. Fear beat confidence.
Friday played out rough for me personally.
I had game played upside, but I didn’t game play downside. That said my instincts kicked in and I knew process wise what I should do but I rushed my execution and then totally botched it. I also second guessed myself. That said, I did honor my stops for my long trades and ate the 50% losses.
The crazy thing is I hadn’t practiced my process for being wrong. A few years ago, I discovered that I need to be flexible and when I’m wrong I should flip with double the size and many times I will make significantly more.
On review, I should have been going to a $5000 bet for the downside and walking away but I didn’t…. $200k miss!
So what happened? And how do I deal with being wrong in a big way and screwing up the execution on the flip. Like sports athletes, I hit the tape room. I review everything, what I was feeling, what I was figuring out, how I executed.
First let’s deal with being wrong. That I accept as part of the game. However I didn’t take the recognition of what it meant into action. I had planned dip buys and swings on MSFT. And held those to their stop outs. However, when SPY broke 607, I should have cut all calls, even the swings. because this last year, almost every time SPY made a new high, if it had failed follow through, at 610 it had a 100-200 point drop coming. I even was looking for that to play out on Thursday. On Thursday I programmed myself that if 607 broke a minimum drop to 602-604 coming with 600.50 being the goal. Knowing that, why I am holding anything long?
I had to dig deep.. What and why was I so bullish? Why wasn’t I being confidant on the flip. Plan was there, the trigger triggered, why didn’t I act with conviction?
Trade Thesis 1: MSFT 417.50c Will Hit $3 to $5 - Round 2
I’ve seen these faker dips before and so I thought if SPY makes all time highs, then MSFT will get carried up. When 607 broke on SPY. that killed this thesis, but I didn’t cancel my swing orders or my call positions until stops got hit.
The GOOD: Stops honored. losses accepted.
The BAD: the dip buys were solid and I could have exited for 30-50% profit or break even before SPY started its earnest selling at noon.
Trade Thesis 2: SPY broke 607 target 600.50
Totally screwed this up. I got overly excited. Sized in at 2.50 it popped to 4.80. missing my sell 50% at 100%gain order. and then got stopped at 2-2.30. on the size and 1.25 on partial.
It dropped to 1, I saw the reversal, and I got back in at 2.50, this time I went smaller and sold 2/3 at to pay for the losses earlier even though I knew this could go 35+
This stung.
I got exactly what I wanted. I wanted a 607-607.50 back test and once 606.30 broke it wasn’t coming back. Let it drop. But I over managed it. I even rolled into 6030p late at $4 and sold most between 8 and 12 focusing on scalp gains, instead of the big pic.
So what happened? I didn’t rehearse the execution on the downside play. I hate losses so when I took the loss and got stopped, It was because I rushed my entry with size and then felt I was in chase mode which I hate.
Physical Check In: Tired. Didn’t sleep well the night before
Emotional Check In: I was spun because I was so confidant about the upside and a rug pull happened and because I was tired, AND I was monitoring too many stocks, I was overwhelmed. I even said at the open to THT PRO members I was feeling overwhelmed today.
Since I was rushed/overwhelmed I didn’t follow process. I didn’t use Edge to plan the trade. During review I used Edge to plan the trade I should have taken. clicked Exit by Move which gave 34 - 55 targets instead of my quick and dirty 15 target.
The Emotional Highs & Lows
Biggest struggle? Flipping with confidence and holding. I had so many wins this week that I got biased and didn’t respect the price action. Then when it spun me, I didn’t pause and calmly plan. With a 35 target, why should use a stop? Why go so big on the first move. Why use 6050, instead of 6065, or 6030.
Then seeing that if I had taken the 5k position and thrown it on 6030p that it would have been 200k after selling 50% to make it free (400k without the protection). I just became angry at myself.
I spent the entire weekend reviewing the chart, feeling what I did wrong, and then rehearsing the calm collected steps I should have done, over and over and over again.
I also got to coding and testing.
I’ll be adding a Volume Analysis feature to Edge to let us know of likelihood of follow through trend or not.
This analysis will likely be rendered as a meter between Range Bound and Trend Probability. It will also post to chat when there is a big change in the meter. Needs a lot of testing.
Revenge Trading Temptation? I did it!
When I saw continuation develop after 1pm, I chased into 6030p nailing entry on the $4 dip. Analysis should 15-20 likely, but I sold majority for 8-12 because of chop AND I knew I was revenging this, felt like I was chasing, and running off instinct instead of calm confidant action. The instinct was perfect — never dropped below $4 and it ran to $20. But I was trading to not lose instead of trading to win. Why? because I was worried I was being too cocky after being wrong on the long and recent win streak on 1000% trades.
Key Lessons & Adjustments
✅ Reset bias. Make sure I rehearse bull and bear plans.
✅ Reorganize my schedule. Writing the daily blogs and watchlist in the morning took time away from trade prep. Going forward, I’ll write most of these blogs after market close leaving edits as my task in morning and block off 30 minutes premarket for mental execution.
✅ Make sure I get enough sleep
Final Thought
The big paying trades have consistently developed after 10:30am. Use that extra hour to clear your head, go for a walk, drink some water, and then start seeing which plans are aligning AFTER seeing the first 60-90 minutes of action.
As for how I deal with botching it:
Figure out what triggered the wrong actions
Practice over and over doing the right thing in my mind.
I’m thinking of adding a Replay feature to the charts in Edge with an Action Section, so one can log the actions one should be taking as the replay happens (at an accelerated pace of course.). Let me know in the comments if you like this idea.
I make mistakes like everyone else, I own them. It feels like we are only as good as our last day but that isn’t true at all. I had three 1000% trades this week alone! But I missed a 4000% trade due to poor mindset/exhaustion/bad prep. That’s expensive! Guys that still pisses me off because I know I’m better than that.
Get angry, get motivated, get to rehearsing patience, planning, and execution
I have to keep reminding myself that the top pro athletes have off days — they get back up, train hard, and go back to being the best they can.
If this kind of trading and attitude aligns with you join us.
PS. My 2025 goal is to place a $35k bet and make $500k - $1m. Then do it 6 more times!. Join me and lets experience those wins together.
Have a crazy trade story? Drop it in the comments. I love hearing war stories.